Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby laf on Sat Apr 20, 2013 7:34 pm

NOTE: THE SOS USED IN THE SELECTION PROCESS ON LAXPOWER IS INCORRECT. THE SOS RANKINGS HERE ARE CORRECT.

ALL OF SATURDAY'S GAMES (APRIL 20) ARE INCLUDED.

To understand where your team stands with two weeks before selection
Sunday, look at the list below and see what the sum of rpi,qw and sos is for your
team. Then look at the table below or the chart below to see how teams over the last
ten years fared with that same total.


Table 1. Sum vs Chances of Getting an Invite
Sum = RPI rank + QW rank + 1/2 SOS rank

Sum % of times invited
(Last ten years)

Lock: 1-21 100%
In: 22-33 92%
Bubble In: 34-38 79%
Bubble Out: 39-51 21%
Out: > 51 < 1%


For example, if South Dakota State has an rpi rank of 12, a qw rank
of 7 and an SOS rank of 14, the sum is (12+7+14/2) = 26. According to
the table and chart below, SDS is in or has a probability of 92% of getting
in. That means over the last ten years, teams with a total of 26 got in
92 out of 100 times.

Below is a list as of games played through April 20, 2013
Remember there are eight automatic qualifiers and eight remaining at-large selections.

No Team Name rpi qw sos
rnk rnk rnk
1.0 1.0 0.5 = total

LOCK ---------------------------------------------
1 Notre Dame 2 1 4 5.00
2 Denver 1 3 3 5.50
3 North Carolina 4 4 7 11.50
4 Duke 5 6 2 12.00
5 Maryland 3 2 17 13.50
6 Penn State 6 5 6 14.00
--------------------------------------------------
PROBABLY IN --------------------------------------
7 Loyola 8 8 11 21.50
8 Cornell 7 7 20 24.00
9 Bucknell 9 10 15 26.50
10 Ohio State 13 9 12 28.00
11 Syracuse 10 11 18 30.00
---------------------------------------------------
BUBBLE IN -----------------------------------------
12 Penn 14 13 13 33.50
13 Albany 12 12 25 36.50
----------------------------------------------------
BUBBLE OUT ----------------------------------------
14 Johns Hopkins 16 18 10 39.00
15 Princeton 18 17 8 39.00
16 Yale 11 19 19 39.50
17 Lehigh 17 16 26 46.00
18 Drexel 15 14 37 47.50
19 Virginia 23 25 1 48.50
20 Villanova 20 27 5 49.50
21 Hofstra 21 22 16 51.00
----------------------------------------------------
22 Fairfield 24 21 21 55.50
23 Massachusetts 22 34 9 60.50
24 St. John's 19 20 45 61.50
25 Hobart 26 32 14 65.00
26 Brown 25 30 33 71.50
27 Marist 28 15 59 72.50
28 Bellarmine 30 26 36 74.00
29 Harvard 27 36 23 74.50
30 Towson 29 35 22 75.00
31 Colgate 31 28 43 80.50
32 Air Force 33 31 34 81.00
33 Army 36 23 52 85.00
34 Jacksonville 34 24 57 86.50
35 Hartford 32 29 53 87.50
36 Georgetown 35 38 35 90.50
37 Marquette 43 33 32 92.00
38 Providence 38 37 47 98.50
39 Dartmouth 37 49 27 99.50
40 Stony Brook 41 40 39 100.50
41 Siena 39 48 30 102.00
42 Delaware 45 45 28 104.00
43 UMBC 40 43 42 104.00
44 Holy Cross 44 42 49 110.50
45 Binghamton 42 46 46 111.00
46 Canisius 49 50 29 113.50
47 Robert Morris 48 39 54 114.00
48 Mount St. Mary's 47 47 44 116.00
49 Bryant 46 52 40 118.00
50 Saint Joseph's 52 51 31 118.50
51 Quinnipiac 50 41 58 120.00
52 Navy 51 54 41 125.50
53 Michigan 53 61 24 126.00
54 Rutgers 55 59 38 133.00
55 Mercer 60 44 62 135.00
56 Sacred Heart 54 57 51 136.50
57 Detroit 58 53 56 139.00
58 High Point 57 58 48 139.00
59 Lafayette 59 55 50 139.00
63 Wagner 63 61 63 155.50


Image

Also for probabilities of getting in based on at large and automatic qualifying
go to http://www.laxbytes.com/binmenstats13/ncaapb01.php

To see how we generated the probabilities click on http://www.laxbytes.com/binmenstats13/guide.pdf
Last edited by laf on Sat Apr 20, 2013 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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IVY Scenario

New postby laf on Sat Apr 20, 2013 8:15 pm

If Harvard beats Yale next week, then its Cornell and Yale, Harvard and Princeton.
If Yale beats Harvard next week, then its Cornell, Yale, Penn and Princeton.


In the latter scenario:
If Cornell beats Princeton next week, then
Cornell has a rematch against Princeton and Yale plays Penn.
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby laxtuvus4therestuvus on Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:09 pm

laf,
are you using the NCAA's rpi too? they're not updated following today's games:

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse-m ... crosse_rpi
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby laf on Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:47 pm

We are using the latest RPI. We calculate them with every update.

http://www.laxpower.com/update13/binmen/rpi01.php
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Virginia is not Out!

New postby laf on Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:50 pm

if they win the ACC tournament, their numbers will probably get them in!
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby Viho on Sun Apr 21, 2013 1:20 am

I just don't see the case for OSU.

Edging out PSU is their best win and not much else.
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby TWLax on Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:35 am

Viho wrote:I just don't see the case for OSU.

Edging out PSU is their best win and not much else.


There just aren't that many teams with a lot of good wins so it's tough to sort them all out. You could say the same thing for other teams, like Loyola. If you don't see OSU as a worthy team then where do you put them? OSU is Loyola's best and only "quality" (Top 20) win. Even Cornell, who most view as a Top 5-10 team, only have quality wins against Penn and Yale who aren't in the Top 10. It's a tough year.
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby jhu72 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:57 pm

Hopkins 70 - Maryland 40 - 1 Tie - we want more!
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby jhu72 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:02 pm

TWLax wrote:
Viho wrote:I just don't see the case for OSU.

Edging out PSU is their best win and not much else.


There just aren't that many teams with a lot of good wins so it's tough to sort them all out. You could say the same thing for other teams, like Loyola. If you don't see OSU as a worthy team then where do you put them? OSU is Loyola's best and only "quality" (Top 20) win. Even Cornell, who most view as a Top 5-10 team, only have quality wins against Penn and Yale who aren't in the Top 10. It's a tough year.


It is going to be difficult for the committee this year to sort out. QK may be right in that the committee may have to consider good / bad losses as tie breakers. Personally having seen OSU play, I don't see them as a top team. How they beat you guys is beyond me. PSU is a much better team than OSU. But there appears to be a significant number of examples of this phenomenon this year.

Look at just the top 10 RPI teams. Victories against these teams are the most valuable. Currently there are 20 teams with one or more top 10 wins. There are 11 teams with one or more top 5 wins (the most valuable). 3 of the 11 top 5 wins are owned by teams currently ineligible (sub 500 w/L or RPI greater than 20). You subtract these three out and you have 8 teams with a top 5 win, only one of those has two (Notre Dame).

PSU
Notre Dame
St. John's (barely eligible - low RPI)
JHU
UNC
Duke
SU
Bucknell

You broaden this list to include top 10 wins, and you note 3 teams with top 10 wins are currently ineligible (MSM, Hobart & Villanova). Leaving you with

Lehigh
OSU
Denver
Maryland
Penn
Albany

Using the criteria the committee will likely use (always have in the past) - primary weight to Quality Wins the teams would rank as follows:

Notre Dame 2 top 5 & 2 top 10
PSU 1 top 5 & 1 top 10
Duke 1 top 5 & 1 top 10
Lehigh 2 top 10
Denver 2 top 10
Maryland 2 top 10

followed by

St. John's 1 top 5 (barely eligible currently)
JHU 1 top 5
UNC 1 top 5
SU 1 top 5
Bucknell 1 top 5

followed by

OSU 1 top 10 win
Penn 1 top 10 win
Albany 1 top 10 win

Of course top 20 wins also count but they are less valuable than a top 10 and far less valuable than a top 5. A team whose best win is in the 11-20 RPI range is not likely to make it. Top 20 wins are used to build the resume, not get you into the tournament as your best win.

This will all change over the next two weeks, some teams will move on and off the list, but this is how the committee has in the past made their choices. Understand that LAFs metrics in this thread only give you probability profiles. You notice that only a single Ivy team appears in this list of teams with top 10 RPI wins. This will likely change but the idea that three ivies make it seems a stretch to me with currently only a single ivy being a top 10 RPI and only one having a win against a top 10 RPI team.

To get two in, Princeton needs to beat Cornell and then someone other than Princeton to win the Ivy tournament. Penn getting in with a single top 10 win doesn't seem very likely, sitting behind 11 other teams and tied with 2 others and the possibility that teams with better wins that are currently ineligible perhaps moving into the eligible category. Could happen, but I think the probability is low.
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby Cooter on Mon Apr 22, 2013 8:49 pm

I think the case of Navy last year would indicate that quality wins was not the whole answer.
Navy beat #4 Hopkins and #7 Colgate last season, but did not get a bid.
Navy was 6-6 and their RPI was #22. I don't think their SOS was top 20.

Hey, LAF, you need to work on your RPI SOS rankings page. It's coming up 0.0000 for everyone.
http://www.laxpower.com/update13/binmen/rpis01.php

I think Pat Stevens' article on Lax Magazine is nicely done:
http://www.laxmagazine.com/college_men/ ... the_bubble

Another thing I would comment on is this packing of the RPI:
1 Denver 1 0.651
2 Notre Dame 2 0.649
3 Maryland 3 0.633
4 North Carolina 4 0.622
5 Cornell 5 0.620
6 Penn State 6 0.618
7 Duke 7 0.611
8 Bucknell 8 0.607
9 Loyola 9 0.605
10 Syracuse 10 0.604
11 Yale 11 0.602
12 Ohio State 12 0.600
13 Albany 13 0.598
14 Penn 14 0.597
15 Drexel 15 0.592
is really too close to make good judgements on the ranking. I think UMd was #8 last week behind Penn who was at #7. UMd beat Yale, Penn beat Dartmouth.

Then you have this grouping:
16 Johns Hopkins 16 0.568
17 Lehigh 17 0.561
18 Princeton 18 0.561
19 Massachusetts 19 0.561
20 St. John's 20 0.557
21 Villanova 21 0.555
22 Virginia 22 0.552
23 Fairfield 23 0.544
24 Hofstra 24 0.538
who's going to end up being a top 20 win?
Last edited by Cooter on Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby jhu72 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 8:54 pm

Navy didn't get in because they didn't pass the top 20 RPI test.
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Error on SOS page

New postby laf on Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:30 pm

There were modifications to the code that unfortunately effected this page and the corrections did not make it by press time.

To see the correct SOS go to

http://www.laxbytes.com/binmenstats13/ncaapb01.php

Sorry for the inconvenience.
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby Cooter on Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:56 pm

jhu72 wrote:Navy didn't get in because they didn't pass the top 20 RPI test.


Is that an NCAA selection rule or just an empirical rule?
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby jhu72 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:42 pm

No one has every identified a team with RPI greater than rank of 20 that has gotten into the tournament through an AL. It makes sense if you do not count as a quality win greater than the rest of the field if you are beaten that you should not be able to participate as an AL.

It is not an official rule, but seems to be the way it works. Would not expect this year to be any different
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby jayrat on Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:51 pm

Crazy year.

Imagine if Georgetown were to win the Big East Tournament!
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby wgdsr on Tue Apr 23, 2013 12:26 am

top 5, top10, top 15, top 20... this process continues to be insane!!!!

the fact that you can beat the #21 team and receive no credit (but greater downside if you lose), but if you beat the #20 team and be canonized is straight crazy. same for the rest of the step-ups.

here's how we select teams: it matters who you beat.
67% - set numbers as 100 down to 38 (there are 63 teams in division 1), or 63 down to 1, or whatever in-between that makes sense. straight line. teams you beat are based on a combination of rpi, krach, whatever. you accumulate points based on the teams you beat.
33% - win loss record.
gotta play good teams and beat them to pile up points. if you try to do it with weak teams, you better beat a ton of them.

this system is ridiculous. the bubble ins are going to be based on something obscure. bank on it.
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby jhu72 on Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:32 am

jayrat wrote:Crazy year.

Imagine if Georgetown were to win the Big East Tournament!


Or UVA the ACC. They would be over 500 and RPI would be under twenty and they would have at worst 2 top 10 wins and more likely a top 5 and a top 10 but possibily two top 5 wins. They would also have 7 teams that had beaten them. This resume in past years would get them in and they would not be bubble. If this comes to pass, I would expect them to make the tournament this year.
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby Ivydude on Tue Apr 23, 2013 6:34 pm

Siena beat Albany just now so take Albany off the "bubble in" list....
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby CU77 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:20 am

wgdsr wrote:here's how we select teams: it matters who you beat.
67% - set numbers as 100 down to 38 (there are 63 teams in division 1), or 63 down to 1, or whatever in-between that makes sense. straight line. teams you beat are based on a combination of rpi, krach, whatever. you accumulate points based on the teams you beat.
33% - win loss record.

This sort of thing sounds good, until you run the numbers. Here are the top 20 teams according to your point system in part one, with beating #1 worth 100 points (and teams initially sorted by RPI):

1 Notre Dame
2 Cornell
3 Denver
4 Bucknell
5 North Carolina
6 Duke
7 Penn State
8 Syracuse
9 Loyola
10 Maryland
11 Albany
12 Drexel
13 Lehigh
14 Ohio State
15 Princeton
16 Yale
17 St. John's
18 Penn
19 Johns Hopkins
20 Fairfield

Does this seem particularly sensible? I would say not.

Changing to 63 points for beating #1 gives similar results.

Lesson: it's hard to design a good ranking system. It's best left to professionals.

And the best system known to professionals, if wins and losses (and not scores) are the only input, is KRACH. :D
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Re: Two weeks to go: Who's In/Out/Bubble

New postby wgdsr on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:01 am

i'm pretty fine with those for a start without tweaking. maryland gets hosed, drexel's a little high, princeton and yale and maybe lehigh have cases to be higher. bucknell should be behind a couple teams they're in front of. i'd be interested in 63 to 1 and maybe 81 to 19 to split it down the middle, if it's not too much trouble. you seem like a magician with this.

but you hate rpi. why not another system of ranking? i'd submit someone could mash several together, or use a better one than just rpi, to get an appropriate look at strength of teams as an input.
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