ZERO HOUR: FINAL in/out; JOY; DESPAIR; SHOCK; OUTRAGE

ZERO HOUR: FINAL in/out; JOY; DESPAIR; SHOCK; OUTRAGE

New postby laf on Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:36 pm

:oh_the_drama: Please express:

JOY :banana-dreads: DESPAIR :confusion-shrug: SHOCK :scared-eek: or OUTRAGE :angry-cussingblack: here after the committee makes its selections at 9PM Eastern!


Final Rankings for the 2013 season

To understand where your team stands on selection
Sunday, look at the list below and see what the sum of rpi,qw and sos is for your
team. Then look at the table below or the chart below to see how teams over the last
ten years fared with that same total.


Table 1. Sum vs Chances of Getting an Invite
Sum = RPI rank + QW rank + 1/2 SOS rank

Sum % of times invited
(Last ten years)

Lock: 1-21 100%
In: 22-33 92%
Bubble In: 34-38 79%
Bubble Out: 39-51 21%
Out: > 51 < 1%


For example, if South Dakota State has an rpi rank of 12, a qw rank
of 7 and an SOS rank of 14, the sum is (12+7+14/2) = 26. According to
the table and chart below, SDS is in or has a probability of 92% of getting
in. That means over the last ten years, teams with a total of 26 got in
92 out of 100 times.

Below is a list as of all games played through the end of the 2013 season.
Remember there are eight automatic qualifiers and eight remaining at-large selections.

FINAL 2013 Season Rankings

No Team Name rpi qw sos
rnk rnk rnk
1.0 1.0 0.5 = total

1 Notre Dame 1 3 2 5.00
2 Syracuse 3 2 7 8.50 AQ
3 Ohio State 2 1 13 9.50 AQ
4 Denver 5 4 4 11.00
5 North Carolina 4 5 17 17.50
6 Duke 12 7 6 22.00
7 Yale 7 11 8 22.00 AQ
8 Penn State 9 9 9 22.50
9 Cornell 8 6 20 24.00
10 Maryland 6 8 23 25.50
11 Loyola 10 10 12 26.00
12 Bucknell 11 14 11 30.50
13 Princeton 16 16 5 34.50
14 Lehigh 15 12 19 36.50 AQ
15 Albany 13 13 24 38.00 AQ
16 Johns Hopkins 17 15 14 39.00
17 Penn 14 18 15 39.50
18 Virginia 19 20 1 39.50
19 Villanova 21 23 3 45.50
20 Drexel 18 19 26 50.00
21 Fairfield 24 21 18 54.00
22 Towson 23 27 16 58.00 AQ
23 Massachusetts 22 33 10 60.00
24 St. John's 20 17 46 60.00
25 Brown 25 25 28 64.00
26 Hofstra 26 29 22 66.00
27 Hobart 28 31 21 69.50
28 Air Force 31 24 35 72.50
29 Harvard 27 37 27 77.50
30 Bellarmine 30 30 40 80.00
31 Colgate 29 32 38 80.00
32 Army 32 28 48 84.00
33 Marist 35 22 58 86.00
34 Jacksonville 34 26 54 87.00
35 Marquette 37 34 33 87.50
36 Stony Brook 36 41 25 89.50
37 UMBC 33 40 39 92.50
38 Georgetown 41 39 34 97.00
39 Providence 40 35 44 97.00
40 Siena 38 43 36 99.00
41 Hartford 39 36 52 101.00
42 Robert Morris 42 38 56 108.00
43 Mount St. Mary's 44 44 42 109.00
44 Holy Cross 45 42 50 112.00
45 Delaware 47 51 29 112.50
46 Dartmouth 46 52 32 114.00
47 Canisius 49 47 37 114.50
48 Bryant 43 50 45 115.50 AQ
49 Binghamton 48 46 49 118.50
50 Detroit 51 48 51 124.50 AQ
51 Navy 50 53 43 124.50
52 Saint Joseph's 53 56 31 124.50
53 Quinnipiac 52 45 59 126.50
54 Michigan 54 60 30 129.00
55 Rutgers 55 61 41 136.50
56 High Point 56 59 47 138.50
57 Vermont 57 54 57 139.50
58 Mercer 60 49 62 140.00
59 Lafayette 59 55 55 141.50
60 Sacred Heart 58 58 53 142.50
61 Manhattan 61 57 60 148.00
62 VMI 62 62 61 154.50
63 Wagner 63 63 63 157.50



Image

Also for probabilities of getting in based on at large and automatic qualifying
go to http://www.laxbytes.com/binmenstats13/ncaapb01.php

To see how we generated the probabilities click on http://www.laxbytes.com/binmenstats13/guide.pdf
Last edited by laf on Sun May 05, 2013 3:55 pm, edited 17 times in total.
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Bucknell and Lehigh

New postby laf on Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:52 pm

Bucknell and Lehigh (AQ) are probably both in
Last edited by laf on Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Penn/Yale/Princeton

New postby laf on Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:53 pm

Cornell is a lock
The winner of the Yale/Penn game should get in regardless of the championship game and the loser of that game may be the last team in or the first team left out.

Princeton will probably have to win the IVY tournament to get in.
Last edited by laf on Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Eight (8) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby CU77 on Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:56 pm

The winner gets the Patriot AQ.
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Re: Eight (8) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby fattylax on Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:00 pm

Math?

Really?

Wasn't that long ago that a recruit who signed a letter of intent to a certain college actually was ranked something like 398 out of 430 in his class......yet...

...yet


He will be attending Hopkins.

Remember.....the NCAA selection committee does NOT follow ANY set rules or criteria.....


the math means NOTHING
" You know how naive you sound? Senators and Presidents don't have people killed. "

"Oh"....who's being naive Kay". GODFATHER
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50jHVPt8DPA
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Re: Eight (8) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby laf on Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:03 pm

If the Math means nothing, then the NCAA primary and secondary criteria for selection means nothing.
The last ten years of data clearly demonstrates that the NCAA DOES follow rules and DOES have criteria.

I think what Fattylax may be trying to say is that while there are rules in place, the NCAA Selection Committee has some latitude in departing from the rules.

Note: In past years however the degree that they can depart from the rules is limited to switching two teams that are ranked neck and neck. That is they cannot take a team ranked 15th and make them 12th but they can switch a 12th and 13th team. The ranking is derived from some internal formula based on rpi, quality win (losses) and strength of schedule.
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby TWLax on Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:25 pm

Hey laf, will you be updating this after yesterday's results? Always look forward to your take.
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby doms76 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:32 pm

He has updated them to reflect yesterday results, look at the first line on his first post.
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby Notafirsttimer on Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:40 pm

Interesting that LAF and the data show PENN higher than Princeton/Hopkins but the polls (Coaches and Nike) kept PENN at 18 but Hopkins13/15 and Princeton 15/16 are rated above them even after losing this weekend. Talk about a biased, jeez!!
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby wgdsr on Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:41 pm

http://www.laxbytes.com/binmenstats13/ncaapb01.php

how does villanova have a 19% shot at an at large? they're 6 and 7 with the big east tournament coming up. they either win it or remain under .500. weather cancellation? it's been a weird spring, but i find those odds to be exaggerated. or i'm missing something.
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby cwoz72 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:47 pm

It seems that the eligible field for at-large bids is pretty limited after this past weekend. Other than conference AQ upsets, the field seems pretty clear

If you assume AQ's for ND, Denver, PSU, Cornell
As well as Conf winners for AE, NEC, MAC as only members of those conferences to get bids

This leaves the remaining at large contenders ranked as:

1-UNC
2-Cuse
3-Duke
4-Bucknell
5-OSU
6-Loyola
7-Maryland
8-Winner Yale/Penn
9 JHU

Everyone else is eliminated from at-large consideration
If ND/Syracuse, Cornell, PSU, or Denver/OSU/Loyola do not win respective conference at large #7 & #8 are at risk

My questions are:
-If Maryland loses and JHU wins this weekend can JHU leapfrog Maryland for an at large?
-Will OSU/Loyola loser drop below Maryland or Yale/Penn winner - This only matters if there is an AQ upset
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby laf on Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:13 pm

The probability are based on the chart at the top. Nothing else.

If you add the rpi ranking, qw ranking and 1/2 the sos ranking and plot that number versus the percentage of times over the last ten years that a team with that number or better was invited, that percentage is the probability.
Last edited by laf on Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby laf on Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:14 pm

This data will be updated within an hour of every key game this Thursday thru Sunday.
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby wgdsr on Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:20 pm

laf wrote:The probability are based on the chart at the top. Nothing else.

If you add the rpi ranking, qw ranking and 1/2 the sos ranking and plot that number versus the percentage of times over the last ten years that a team with that number or better was invited, that percentage is the probability.
thanks. but shouldn't the fact that they can't be invited as an at large be an input and change their ranking for this year? i'm assuming based on what you're saying that doesn't alter anyone else's number for what you've coagulated, that this is historical guidance.

and of course... you may not care to include it and it's your list!
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby laf on Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:26 pm

If a team does not have a 0.500 record, zthey cannot get an at large invitation.

Yes, that should have been included and it wasn't. There is always next year to fix it.
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby deepest_consequence on Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:34 pm

12 teams are "In":
- the winners of America East, Metro Atlantic and Northeast with no at-large teams (3)
- Big East: Syracuse and Notre Dame (2)
- Colonial: Penn St (1)
- ECAC: Denver (1)
- Ivy: Cornell (1)
- Patriot: Lehigh (1)
- ACC: N. Carolina, Duke, Maryland (3)

Compared to college hockey or basketball a team coming from out-of-the-blue to win a major conference championship is far less likely, so I’m eliminating Villanova, Georgetown, Towson, UMass, and Fairfield from practical consideration (even though one or two may win a semi-final, which will not be enough).

That leaves 7 teams competing for 4 spots: Drexel, Loyola, Oh St, Penn, Yale, Princeton and Bucknell. Drexel and Princeton are not at-large candidates, they have to win their conferences. The semi-finals in the Colonial, ECAC and Ivy conferences will go a long way to finalizing the NCAA field. First, the winners of Loyola/Oh St and Penn/Yale are in, so now it’s down to 5 teams for 2 spots.

If chalk holds and Penn St, Denver and Cornell win their championships then Drexel and Princeton are definitely out as is either the Loyola/Oh St or Penn/Yale loser. If Penn beats Yale then it’s Yale that’s out based on QWs and RPI, no matter what happens in Loyola/Oh St. If Penn and Oh St both lose their semis it’s a closer call, Penn has better QWs (Duke, Lehigh, Princeton vs Penn St, VA) and that’s often the deciding factor.

If Drexel or Princeton win their AQ then both the Loyola/Oh St and Penn/Yale semi-final losers are out.

If Drexel and Princeton win their AQ then both Loyola/Oh St and Penn/Yale semi-final losers are out as is Bucknell.

Why Bucknell instead of either the Loyola/Oh St or Penn/Yale winner? Because both those winners will have improved their RPI and QW factors to be equal to or better than Bucknell’s by virtue of their semi-final wins. Add to that the fact that Bucknell’s signature win, over Cornell, was in a snowstorm and included a 30 minute snow delay, they have 3 lopsided losses to Lehigh (twice) and Penn St, and they have a “bad” loss to Mount St Mary’s. The selection decision will be tight at this point and small things will matter. Fortunately for Bucknell the probability of this particular scenario emerging is extremely low.

It doesn’t matter if Penn or Yale go on to beat Cornell or Princeton, or Oh St or Loyola go on to beat Denver, the scenarios above still hold (i.e., it’s the semifinal winners in those two conferences and whether Drexel or Princeton can go all the way that determine the final field).
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby wgdsr on Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:41 pm

holy cow. your maiden post? that's incredible on a lot of fronts.
how have you managed to stay off until now?
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Re: Eight (8) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby CU77 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:48 pm

laf wrote:In past years however the degree that [the selection committee] can depart from the rules is limited to switching two teams that are ranked neck and neck. That is they cannot take a team ranked 15th and make them 12th but they can switch a 12th and 13th team. The ranking is derived from some internal formula based on rpi, quality win (losses) and strength of schedule.

I believe this was true circa 2007, but hasn't been true since circa 2009. See Tony Seaman's (unusually informative) comments on last year's selection process (which I've linked to in past threads). There is no indication at all in his comments that the committee starts with a definite formula.
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby 10stone5 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:05 pm

wgdsr wrote:
deepest_consequence wrote:12 teams are "In":
- the winners of America East, Metro Atlantic and Northeast with no at-large teams (3)
- Big East: Syracuse and Notre Dame (2)
- Colonial: Penn St (1)
- ECAC: Denver (1)
- Ivy: Cornell (1)
- Patriot: Lehigh (1)
- ACC: N. Carolina, Duke, Maryland (3)

It doesn’t matter if Penn or Yale go on to beat Cornell or Princeton, or Oh St or Loyola go on to beat Denver, the scenarios above still hold (i.e., it’s the semifinal winners in those two conferences and whether Drexel or Princeton can go all the way that determine the final field).


holy cow. your maiden post? that's incredible on a lot of fronts.
how have you managed to stay off until now?

How's it going Mr. Seaman ?
NCAA Lacrosse Bracketology withdrawal, I'm guessing :wink:
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Re: Seven (7) Days To Go: IN/OUT/BUBBLE

New postby TWLax on Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:31 pm

deepest_consequence wrote: Compared to college hockey or basketball a team coming from out-of-the-blue to win a major conference championship is far less likely, so I’m eliminating Villanova, Georgetown, Towson, UMass, and Fairfield from practical consideration (even though one or two may win a semi-final, which will not be enough).


Great post overall - but I wouldn't count out UMass just yet. Agree on all/most other fronts though.
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