D3 Bracketology, 2010 (SELECTION SUNDAY, 820pm update)

D3 Bracketology, 2010 (SELECTION SUNDAY, 820pm update)

New postby D-III on Fri Feb 12, 2010 5:31 pm

The brackets will be updated as often as possible, go to the end of the thread to find the most recent bracket, UPDATED on 5/9/10, 820pm Page 13

It is that time of year again! I started this thread last season on February 12, 2009 (and it eventually grew to 26 pages), so seems fitting to do it again a year later on the same date. A reminder, at this point in the season this is mere speculation (mine alone). But I will keep this thread updated throughout the season as teams rise and fall.

History says, as the year progresses if you want to know who is going to make the NCAAs before the Selection Show, this is the place to be. Last year's final bracket prediction on who would make the field was 100% accurate, and the previous year I was 20 for 21 (missing only 5 loss Bowdoin as a Pool C team).

Good news, for the third year in a row, a team was added to the D3 NCAA Tournament: The breakdown is now, 15 Pool A, 3 Pool B, 5 Pool C.

This is completely different than a top-20 list, as the tournament criteria (AQ's, Pool C etc...) need to be accounted for. I ranked teams and reviewed schedules and here is my pre-pre-preliminary 2010 NCAA tournament field. Also, I have accounted for geographic considerations which the Committee weighs in seeding the field:

2/12/10 Bracket:

North:

#1 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ) v. winner of #8 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ) v. #9 Eastern Ct. (Little East AQ)

#4 Tufts (Pool C) v. #5 Nazareth (Empire 8 AQ)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#2 WNEC (CCC AQ) v. winner of #7 St. Lawrence (Liberty AQ) v. #10 Monclair St. (Skyline AQ)

#3 Middlebury (NESCAC AQ) v. winner of #6 Wesleyan (Pool C) v. #11 Mount Ida (NAC AQ)



South:

#1 Salisbury (CAC AQ) v. winner of #8 Cabrini (CSAC AQ) v. #9 Widener (MAC AQ)

#4 Stevenson (Pool C) v. #5 Haverford (Pool C) v. #12 USMMA (Landmark AQ)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#2 Gettysburg (Centennial AQ) v. winner of #7 Roanoke (Pool C) v. #10 OWU (Pool B)

#3 Denison (Pool B) v. winner of #6 W&L (ODAC AQ) v. #11 Colorado College (Pool B)



Some key early season Pool C games I have identified:

2/20- Salisbury-Lynchburg; Stevenson-Widener; Stevens-Muhlenberg
2/21- Roanoke-St. Mary's
2/27- Cortland-WNEC; Endicott-Stevens; Gettysburg-HSC; Naz-Springfield; OWU-Lynchburg; F&M-Roanoke; Haverford-Cabrini; Widener-Salisbury
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby sirhope44 on Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:22 pm

Yea Well, If W&L wins the ODAC it had better be in a Triple Overtime against Roanoke.

Me thinks your looking at Roanoke going 17 and 1 w/ the single lost coming in the ODAC final like last year.

I don't think that's going to happen. Going 17 and 0 does not happen this year. Not with the likes of Williams (OK, I know there from the North Region), Cabrini College, Stevenson, F&M, St. Mary's College of Maryland and Dickinson College. I just looked at York's Roster and they have a ton of Kids from Maryland on the Team. York is not going to be a push over first game for Roanoke. I agree F&M and St Mary's are key match ups. Roanoke than rolls out of those two games to plays Cabrini and Dickinson!

I don't see a pool C coming out of the ODAC this year. I'm a little miffed that you came right out of the gate w/ W&L winning the ODAC for AQ :confusion-shrug: I think most ODAC fans believe Roanoke is the favorite to win the title at this point.

My bet is that only one team from the ODAC get in and that will be Roanoke, W&L or LC by winning ODAC AQ.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby muleski on Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:47 pm

Nice job, DIII. Thanks. We'll see how the NESCAC shakes out. I don't think Midd will be there for the AQ, but I think they may have a good enough season to get a Pool C. I don't see Wes in there unless they win the conference. Their OOC schedule is embarassingly weak, IMO: Salve Regina, SUNY-Maritime, Montclair St., Farmingdale St., and US Merchant Marine. Compare that with Bowdoin: WNEC, Naz, Springfield, Endicott, and Keene St. My hunch is that Tufts wins the NESCAC AQ, Midd and Bowdoin get Pool C bids. Maybe just one of them. Going to be more parity than ever in the NESCAC, IMO.

Thanks again for the work. Should be another great season.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby goblueknights on Sat Feb 13, 2010 7:12 am

Well thought out... thanks for doing this as it is a good place to start the debates.

Couple of thoughts.... i think you forgot 3 or 4 other NESCAC schools in your predictions, shouldn't they be all on the list (just pulling you chain --- only kidding --- don't get mad please). I do appreciate the discussion.

Second I do think that there are some other early games that could have Pool C implications (of course they involve the boys from Genny): Geneseo vs Naz; Geneseo vs Ithaca

One thing i must say is that we at Geneseo all have "turf envy". It is such an advantage to the schools that have turf, especially in the "winter" early season games. Geneseo will not get outside until the one scrimmage they play and the next time they do it will be against turf teams Union and Naz. Just a bit of moaning.

Let the games begin.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby idealtin on Sat Feb 13, 2010 8:16 am

D-III Nice job as usual, thanks!
GBK The whining of your faithful does get old, however it does get heard, Naz-Geneseo game held at neutral site this year.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby richard on Sat Feb 13, 2010 9:37 am

I'm not so sure about the Pool C selections from the north. You might want to split them. One from NESCAC and one from E8. Your and my biases might be showing but I do believe that E8 is up this year and NESCAC is down. Top to bottom too.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby cheapshot on Sat Feb 13, 2010 10:27 am

i think wnec may be in trouble this year, with injuries. and i dont believe Wnec or Endicott is a lock to win the CCC. my question is do you think wnec will still make the tournament if the have good season but dont win the ccc?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby D-III on Sat Feb 13, 2010 11:08 am

goblueknights,
I only included key Pool C games being played in February. I should have specified. The Geneseo games you mentioned certainly will be important, as well as many other March games.


Richard,
Admittedly this is pure speculation at this point. That said, the NESCAC has received 3 bids in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and have been called "down" before, so I went with what the historical numbers say.

Meanwhile, last year the E8 only managed a #10 seed in the North in the NCAAs, and they lost by 7 goals in the opening round. They certainly could get a second bid, but I think it is more likely to come from the Liberty or CCC. Not to mention the CAC, ODAC, and Centennial will all be looking for bids too. Not a lot to go around. I agree it will be difficult for the NESCAC or any conference to get 3 bids in 2010, but doing it 3 consecutive years is a pattern, not a coincidence.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby goblueknights on Sat Feb 13, 2010 11:56 am

I do agree that there will be 2 from the E8 this year... take ur pick; Naz Ithaca, Fisher, or RIT

As for the pattern; i guess i would respectively like to quote: "those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it"

Maybe we can learn from history and 3 from any conference is too many in such a small tournament with so many AQs and Pool B weak teams.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby Fake High Go High on Sat Feb 13, 2010 1:24 pm

idealtin wrote:D-III Nice job as usual, thanks!
GBK The whining of your faithful does get old, however it does get heard, Naz-Geneseo game held at neutral site this year.

where will that game be played?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby richard on Sat Feb 13, 2010 1:35 pm

I like the quote in regards to the selection commitee. They have repeated the same mistake with their pool B selections and the NCAC how many times? It's time to start spreading things to the best teams,or at least they should start thinking of pool B in the same manner that they think of pool A. Even though they are locked in by the conditions they have set, maybe they should change those conditions. At least when the Landmark gets their AQ they will be taking one of those pool B selections and making it an AQ. Thank God for small favors.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby goalielax10 on Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:05 pm

The system "is what it is" and untill teams like Colorado College (for now), Christopher Newport, Whittier and Greensboro consistently get the job done on the field against other Pool B's (including the NCAC), then we will continually see a few teams from the NCAC as opposed to just one. Not disagreeign with what has been posted, just saying. Btw when does the Landmark get their AQ? Next year? Based on the number of spots now in D3 for the NCAA playoffs would the selection committee send another "northern" team south ie Ithaca in 07 or Montclair last year?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby gebstr83 on Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:45 pm

Fake High Go High wrote:
idealtin wrote:D-III Nice job as usual, thanks!
GBK The whining of your faithful does get old, however it does get heard, Naz-Geneseo game held at neutral site this year.

where will that game be played?


Saturday, 3/6 Nazareth Monroe CC 1 p.m.
Friday, 3/12 Ithaca Onondaga CC 12:30 p.m.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby Fake High Go High on Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:02 pm

Thanks Gebstr!
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby bmagic on Sat Feb 13, 2010 7:45 pm

Union is going to take the Liberty League this year.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby Fake High Go High on Sat Feb 13, 2010 8:07 pm

Last year Union was nothing special. so unless they return everyone and they all got ten times better I still say it is ST. Law/Skidmore/Clarkson's year
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby fattire18 on Sun Feb 14, 2010 12:24 pm

The Landmark Conference starts with their AQ this year. The Committee did not reduce the the number of Pool B bids, but rather increased the Pool A bids. Since the top Landmark teams were usually in contention for a Pool B bid, IMHO their absence from Pool B will only increase the likelihood of multiple teams from the NCAC.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby D-III on Sun Feb 14, 2010 1:10 pm

fattire18 wrote:The Landmark Conference starts with their AQ this year. The Committee did not reduce the the number of Pool B bids, but rather increased the Pool A bids. Since the top Landmark teams were usually in contention for a Pool B bid, IMHO their absence from Pool B will only increase the likelihood of multiple teams from the NCAC.


Correct, there are even fewer teams competing for Pool B this year because the Landmark has an AQ, but there are still 3 bids to hand out.

Realistically, these are the teams competing for the 3 Pool B bids: Denison, OWU, Colorado College, Wooster, Kenyon, Greensboro, Whittier, Christopher Newport

Not bad odds.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010

New postby Fire-Reco on Sun Feb 14, 2010 4:27 pm

D-III wrote:
fattire18 wrote:The Landmark Conference starts with their AQ this year. The Committee did not reduce the the number of Pool B bids, but rather increased the Pool A bids. Since the top Landmark teams were usually in contention for a Pool B bid, IMHO their absence from Pool B will only increase the likelihood of multiple teams from the NCAC.


Correct, there are even fewer teams competing for Pool B this year because the Landmark has an AQ, but there are still 3 bids to hand out.

Realistically, these are the teams competing for the 3 Pool B bids: Denison, OWU, Colorado College, Wooster, Kenyon, Greensboro, Whittier, Christopher Newport

Not bad odds.


Well, realistically one bid is denison's to lose. So 2 bids for 6 or 7 teams. I would be surprised if CN pulled out a bid but the rest of the teams have as good a shot as any.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 2010 (Updated on 3/1/10)

New postby D-III on Mon Mar 01, 2010 5:16 pm

Not a lot of changes yet, as so few games have been played. All of the teams from the original release remain. I rearranged the seeding based on game performance to date. I also updated the key Pool C games to be played over the next 10 days.

Seeding- OWU rising; Salisbury dropped a bit, as did WNEC and Widener:

3/1/10 Bracket:

North:

#1 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ) v. winner of #8 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ) v. #9 Eastern Ct. (Little East AQ)

#4 WNEC (CCC AQ) v. #5 Nazareth (Empire 8 AQ)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#2 Middlebury (NESCAC AQ) v. winner of #7 St. Lawrence (Liberty AQ) v. #10 Monclair St. (Skyline AQ)

#3 Tufts (Pool C) v. winner of #6 Wesleyan (Pool C) v. #11 Mount Ida (NAC AQ)



South:

#1 Gettysburg (Centennial AQ) v. winner of #8 OWU (Pool B) v. #9 Cabrini (CSAC AQ)

#4 Stevenson (Pool C) v. #5 Haverford (Pool C) v. #12 Widener (MAC AQ)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#2 Denison (Pool B) v. winner of #7 Roanoke (Pool C) v. #10 Colorado College (Pool B)

#3 Salisbury (CAC AQ) v. winner of #6 W&L (ODAC AQ) v. #11 USMMA (Landmark AQ)



Some key Pool C games over the next 10 days:

3/2-
Geneseo at Union

3/6-
Cortland-Gettysburg (this is an IN-Region game despite the North/South regional designations of each team);
Nazareth-Geneseo;
Cabrini at Roanoke;
St. Lawrence-Haverford (this is an IN-Region game despite the North/South regional designations of each team);
WAC at W&L

3/7-
WNEC at Stevenson (this is an IN-Region game despite the North/South regional designations of each team)

3/9-
OWU at W&L

3/10-
Ithaca at Union
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