D3 Bracketology, March 6, 2011

[D-III]

We are a couple of weeks into the season, though some teams have yet to play a single game. That said, several teams have already lost key games greatly diminishing their chances of making the NCAAs, while others have won big early games. There were enough changes to update the brackets, a reminder at this point in the season Bracketology continues to be mere speculation, mine alone.

500 Mile Rule- One of the most difficult tasks in creating the brackets is geography, which takes precedent over seeding. The goal of the NCAA Selection Committee will be to minimize air travel (which must occur if the school’s are more than 500 miles from each other). As such, I had to shift several teams in the seeding from where I believe they should be and rework the brackets to account for the 500 mile rule.

In- Endicott (AQ), Stevens (Pool C), Hampden-Sydney (Pool C)

Out- Gettysburg, Geneseo, WNEC


3/6/11 Bracket:

North:

#1 Tufts (NESCAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 Keene St. (Little East AQ) v. #9 Endicott (CCC AQ)

winner of #4 Middlebury (Pool C) v. #13 Castleton (NAC AQ) v. winner of #5 RPI (Liberty AQ) v. #12 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ)
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#3 RIT (E8 AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #6 Stevens (Pool C) v. #11 Montclair St. (Skyline AQ)

#2 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #7 Bowdoin (Pool C) v. #10 Colorado College (SCAC AQ)

______________________________________________________________________________________________

South

#1 Salisbury (CAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 Cabrini (CSAC AQ) v. #9 Goucher (Landmark AQ)

winner of #4 Haverford (Centennial AQ) v. #13 Widener (MAC AQ) v. winner of #5 Dickinson (Pool C) v. #12 OWU (Pool B)
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#3 Roanoke (ODAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #6 Denison (Pool B) v. #11 Adrian (Pool B)

#2 Stevenson (Pool C) First Round Bye v. winner of #7 Hampden-Sydney (Pool C) v. #10 Wittenberg (Pool B)



Some key Pool B and Pool C games I have identified over the next week:

3/9-
Hampden-Sydney at Cabrini

3/11-
St. Lawrence at Ithaca

3/12-
Wesleyan at Bowdoin
Cortland v. Gettysburg
Denison at Haverford
Lynchburg at Stevenson
Roanoke at Dickinson
OWU at Salisbury

[wheniwasakid...]

awesome stuff. Well done.

[growinLIlax]

Has an E8 team ever won a pool c bid?

[maddlaxer]

Looking at the breakout and I know it is early, if things continue with this trend your looking at Lynchburg on the outside looking in again with a #9 in the current USILA Coaches poll, a 19 SOS and a Computer Ranking of 15. While if we look at the Pool B group, out of the 4 only Dennison is even in the ball park with a #12 Coaches ranking, 12 computer ranking and a 52 SOS. All the other teams Wittenberg, Adrian and OWU dont crack the top 20. Though Witt did get a vote but they have a 32 computer rank and a 81 SOS, Adrian has a 25 computer and a 13 SOS and lastly OWU has a 50 compuer ranking and a 64 SOS. Obviusly as the season goes on these numbers may rise but the questions again arises about the number of Pool B bids (4) to teams that are from the NCAC and well below those like Lynchberg left out.It doesn't seem right.

[D-III]

maddlaxer,
Your points aside, as Laxpower says on the website, ignore the computer rankings until most teams have 5 games. They are COMPLETELY meaningless right now, take a look: Carthage is #7, Otterbein #8, York #9, Misericordia #11 etc....not to mention all the teams who have yet to play a single game.

growinLIlax,
Ithaca recieved a Pool C bid in 2007 from the E8.

[ucantseeme528]

Hey DIII,
What does the win over Lynchburg do for Stevens Tech? This of course depends on how the E8 reg/post season goes, but them being located in Jersey gives them a 500 mile radius that goes well into the North Carolina and up into Canada. If they struggle in the E8, which is not hard to believe since the conference is very strong this year, could they still get into the South region?

I only ask because as a former player there, I remember asking the same questions waiting on selection Sunday

[D-III]

Stevens is in the North, but there is certainly a possibility that they could be placed in the South region, because as you said, they are in New Jersey which is a central location to head north or south and save the NCAA travel expenses.

That said, while the teams are placed in the North/South brackets, the resumes for the at-large (Pool C) bids are viewed all together, and any number of the 6 bids can be allocated to the North or South depending on who has the strongest resumes. So regardless, Stevens will need to do well in the E8 if they want to get a bid, this win alone won't carry them.

Stevens-Lynchburg was a out of region game, meaning it will only come into play as a tiebreaker if teams are too close to separate based on in-region games. Out of region games have come in to play the last couple of seasons in deciding the bids, so I have a feeling this game will play a role in either helping Stevens get in, or keeping Lynchburg out on Selection Sunday. We'll have to wait and see how it shakes out.

Stay tuned, may run a Bracketology update tomorrow, but more likely will just wait until after the big games this weekend.

[Wonderlax]

Carthage will probably finish the season undefeated; does the Midwest Conf have an AQ this year? They certainly would be undeserving of a Pool B bid because they don't play anyone of merit.

[D-III]

Carthage is in Pool B, but I have them losing the last game of the season to Adrian which will remove them from consideration.

[thatsmell]

Good question.
Carthage would have to beat Adrian if they want to go undefeated.

At this point Adrian's OOC schedule may be strong enough (if they win a game or two against mediocre competition) to get consideration for one of the NCAC "independent" bids...

[ucantseeme528]

Thanks D-III, knew you'd be able to straighten things out for me....