D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby D-III on Sun May 06, 2012 4:11 pm

Here is where things stand, I will probably take another look or two and update if necessary leading up to 10pm tonight.

This is the year of the imperfect resume, there are not a lot of teams beating down the Pool C door, and even when trying to seed the teams it became difficult to weigh overall resume strength v. head-to-head.

An example, take a look at the North seeds #5-#9 where it was a circular firing squad of head-to-head wins and losses. There was no way to order these teams neatly. This was probably the single hardest group of teams to order in the field.

And in the South, Cabrini/Goucher have two of the weakest SOS in the entire field, I would not be surprised if they drop when the Bracket is released, I was tempted to have them as #10 seeds or worse. That said, Cabrini beat Gettysburg and Goucher beat Washington College, so it becomes difficult to place those Centennial teams higher despite having huge SOS advantages.

Couple of final thoughts:

1. Roanoke gets the last bid ahead of Conn College and St. Lawrence despite going 0-3 against Regionally Ranked opponents, a key part of the criteria, how and why you might ask? They sit ahead of Conn College, who perhaps has the most well rounded resume of the bottom Pool C contenders, but digging deeper, Roanoke has an advantage at SOS and winning %, I felt this was enough to offset that Conn College went 3-4 against regional ranked opponents. Especially because those wins were against lowly ranked Colby, and no longer ranked Amherst.

St. Lawrence, had a better winning % than Roanoke, and many of the Pool C teams, but their SOS was the worst of the bunch, and they were also 0-3 against regionally ranked opponents.

Again, imperfect resumes all around.

2. Washington College and Trinity’s wins over Dickinson and Tufts respectively were difference makers. Both were very much on the bubble. Particularily Washington College, but that win put them ahead of Roanoke in the pecking order.

3. Tufts had a D3 best 9 wins against regionally ranked opponents, the next most was way back at 6 wins, Cortland and Salisbury.

4. I shifted Birmingham-Southern to the North, they are flying no matter what, so why not send them to the northern most school in the entire field? I also considered shifting OWU to the north to face RIT. I also think there is a possibility that Stevens could move to the South if necessary, since it would be geographically feasible.



5/6/12 Bracket:

North:

#1 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 Trinity (Pool C) v. #9 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ)
v.

winner of #4 Union (Pool C) v. #13 New England College (NAC AQ) v. winner of #5 Bowdoin (Pool C) v. #12 Birmingham-Southern (SCAC AQ)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

winner of #3 RIT (Liberty AQ) v. #14 Mount Ida (GNAC AQ) v. winner of #6 Stevens (E8 AQ) v. #11 Montclair St. (Skyline AQ)

v.

#2 Tufts (NESCAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #7 Western New England (CCC AQ) v. #10 Eastern Ct. (Little East AQ)

______________________________________________________________________________________________

South

#1 Salisbury (CAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 Denison (Pool B) v. #9 Washington College (Pool C)

v.

winner of #4 Dickinson (Centennial AQ) v. #13 OWU (Pool B) v. winner of #5 Cabrini (CSAC AQ) v. #12 Kenyon (Pool B)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

winner of #3 Stevenson (Pool C) v. #14 Eastern (MAC AQ) v. winner of #6 Gettysburg (Pool C) v. #11 Adrian (Midwest AQ)

v.

#2 Lynchburg (ODAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #7 Goucher (Landmark AQ) v. #10 Roanoke (Pool C)
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby richard on Sun May 06, 2012 4:23 pm

Are there any regional rankings since the last were posted. Have they changed in the last couple of weeks?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby 3T on Sun May 06, 2012 4:34 pm

DIII any chance Bowdoin and Union flip #4 and #5 seeds. Big difference in geographical locations which will give the home team not traveling a significant advantage....
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby D-III on Sun May 06, 2012 4:47 pm

I don't think so, Union's resume is as good or better in almost every key area.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby downbytheriver on Sun May 06, 2012 4:55 pm

D3,

Why do you have Gettysburg getting a Pool C bid ahead of the other pool C contenders? Gettysburg has only one win over a top 20 team, and that is against Goucher, who I feel is one of the most overrated teams in D3 right now. They beat Frostburg State 6-3 when St. Mary's beat them 14-4. Gettysburg beat WAC, but other than that they have no other solid wins, and a weak sos. The loss to McDaniel, and the back to back losses to Dickinson I think also hurt them. I just am wondering your reasoning for them getting a Pool C bid instead of other teams like St. Mary's or Conn College?

Also can I get the reasoning for Roanoke getting a pool C bid? Only quality win I see is over St. Mary's and that being the first game of the season doesn't hold much weight.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby Fire-Reco on Sun May 06, 2012 5:08 pm

Down, he already explained both of these things. Gburg has a very very good SOS, and the committee wont rationalize away their wins or care about scores that you think should have been more impressive. And just read his explanation above the braket, he spells out the Roanoke decision clearly.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby richard on Sun May 06, 2012 5:16 pm

The oddity of the formula being that if a team is ever regionally ranked, a win vs that team remains as a regionally ranked win no matter whether the team stays on the regional rankings list. :confusion-shrug:
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby CCHB4 on Sun May 06, 2012 5:42 pm

I completely agree. It would make much more sense to just calculate it based on the regional rankings put out during the final week of the regular season, counting only wins and losses against those teams.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby DivisionIII on Sun May 06, 2012 5:52 pm

downbytheriver wrote:Gettysburg has only one win over a top 20 team, and that is against Goucher, who I feel is one of the most overrated teams in D3 right now. They beat Frostburg State 6-3 when St. Mary's beat them 14-4.

Goucher's is more than capable of handily defeating a less than stellar Gburg team. It was easily their second worst game of the season behind Frostburg. Even so they only lost 8-5 while shooting an abysmal 12%. Frostburg while lacking raw lacrosse skill is a very athletic team that was closer to matching Goucher's athleticism than maybe any other team they've played thus far. Also I've heard that Goucher's bus broke down which added to the already 3 and a half hour trip to western Maryland which probably had a large impact on Goucher's play that day. To say they are one of the most overrated teams in D3 based on one game in the first week of March is very naive of you.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby LuvNPhillyLax on Sun May 06, 2012 6:34 pm

I was on a Washington & Lee bus that broke down today. :wink:
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby CBrass on Sun May 06, 2012 7:21 pm

Where is the support for St. Mary's?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby lowtohigh on Sun May 06, 2012 7:26 pm

LuvNPhillyLax wrote:I was on a Washington & Lee bus that broke down today. :wink:



This wins today.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby downbytheriver on Sun May 06, 2012 7:34 pm

Goucher's is more than capable of handily defeating a less than stellar Gburg team. It was easily their second worst game of the season behind Frostburg. Even so they only lost 8-5 while shooting an abysmal 12%. Frostburg while lacking raw lacrosse skill is a very athletic team that was closer to matching Goucher's athleticism than maybe any other team they've played thus far. Also I've heard that Goucher's bus broke down which added to the already 3 and a half hour trip to western Maryland which probably had a large impact on Goucher's play that day. To say they are one of the most overrated teams in D3 based on one game in the first week of March is very naive of you.


I am not trying to downplay the success of Goucher's season, looking at their schedule I see a lot of wins, but not many quality wins. The win over UMW is nice, and also the win over Drew is respectable, but it seems like the rest of their wins were blow outs. I am not saying they are a bad team, far from it, I just feel like they have not had the chance to prove themselves due to their relatively weak conference and schedule. As for Frostburg I can see the 3 hour bus ride affecting their play, but if Frostburg is the most athletic team they have faced thus far, they have a long hard road in ahead of them.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby downbytheriver on Sun May 06, 2012 7:42 pm

CBrass wrote:Where is the support for St. Mary's?


That is a good question. Great SOS. Solid win against Dickinson, tough one goal loss to Denison after leading the whole game, and the played Stevenson very closely in the CAC Semis. I know they are in the mix, but I feel like they are not getting any of the attention they deserve.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby D-III on Sun May 06, 2012 7:46 pm

downbytheriver wrote:
CBrass wrote:Where is the support for St. Mary's?


That is a good question. Great SOS. Solid win against Dickinson, tough one goal loss to Denison after leading the whole game, and the played Stevenson very closely in the CAC Semis. I know they are in the mix, but I feel like they are not getting any of the attention they deserve.


St. Mary's SOS falls outside the D3 Top-50 under the Criteria. Stranger things have happened but I would be very surprised if they got a bid.

In contrast, Gettysburg's SOS is Top-2 along with Stevenson.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby thatsmell on Sun May 06, 2012 8:38 pm

Diii,

I'd be shocked too, but excited if SMC got a bid. It would be fun to see what they could do in the tourney, the way they played down the stretch.

Out of curiosity, how does the NCAA criteria have SMC's SOS falling from 26 in all of D3 to outside of the top 50? How could it get worse when the "bad" rating of 26 includes Hood, MMT, Frostburg etc that they have to play as members of the CAC? I'd think if the top 10 RPI's are considered (like in D1) for SOS the Hawks would be ok with SU, Steve , Steve, Denison and Dickinson in the mix.

No matter what happens, I love the tourney and the seedings. Fun to see the pairings!

Good luck to all the teams, especially any first timers that may get an opportunity!!!

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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby trplax25 on Sun May 06, 2012 9:13 pm

Pretty sure the #26 you're referring to is the Laxpower SOS? My understanding is that is just an average of their opponents power ratings, according to Laxpower. Under the NCAA criteria for SOS, 2/3 opponents win pct, 1/3 opponents opponents win pct, I can confirm that that St. Mary's falls outside the top 50; my numbers have them at #54.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby trplax25 on Sun May 06, 2012 9:18 pm

I'd love to see the pairings that D-III has on this post. The thought of potential 2nd round Stevenson/Gettysburg and Lynchburg/Roanoke in the South would be hard to beat. I wonder if it would be possible to get to both of those games depending on the start times!
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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby thatsmell on Sun May 06, 2012 9:39 pm

trplax25 wrote:Pretty sure the #26 you're referring to is the Laxpower SOS? My understanding is that is just an average of their opponents power ratings, according to Laxpower. Under the NCAA criteria for SOS, 2/3 opponents win pct, 1/3 opponents opponents win pct, I can confirm that that St. Mary's falls outside the top 50; my numbers have them at #54.


Yeah, I figured there had to be some fancy math on that!

Still like to see the HAwks get a chance. If not this year, hopefully next!

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Re: D3 Bracketology, May 6, 2012

New postby 11 on Sun May 06, 2012 9:55 pm

The selection show is on ncaa.com, correct?
Last edited by 11 on Sun May 06, 2012 10:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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