D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby D-III on Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:37 pm

What a difference a week makes! Roanoke goes from out of the field to the #2 seed in the South. Likewise, Endicott was projected as out and now would be set to host a winnable home game in Round 1. A message to all, things change…fast.

Some thoughts on Pool C, as of now things breakdown as follows:

Assuming they take care of business, and win the games they should, Washington College, W&L, Middlebury and Lynchburg are all in relatively good shape.

That leaves one spot right now, and a lot of teams, here are the various tiers:

Tier 1- St. Lawrence, F&M, Connecticut College, Plattsburgh, right now all of these teams have an argument and similar resumes. In reality, Plattsburgh will likely drop off this list as their SOS at season’s end will not be on par with the other three teams. Their only hope is that the other three lose games that they should not.

It is a complete guess to determine which of the other three (F&M, St. Lawrence, Conn College) is the last team standing at this point, as such, I have included a Pool C #5 in the Bracket where they would logically fit. All three teams could host Montclair St. and travel to Cortland without a flight, under the 500 mile rule discussed last week.

Tier 2- St. Mary’s, York, Ursinus, these three teams are on the cusp, but for various reasons (weak SOS, lack of anticipated regionally ranked wins etc…) are on the outside looking in. They need some help to move up the ladder.

Tier 3 (Teams with weak SOS)- Wesleyan, St. John Fisher, Widener, these teams need to improve their schedules if they want to realistically be considered for a at-large bid. We see it every year, a superior win/loss record is not going to get you in the field.

Tier 4 (Teams with too many losses)- Nazareth, Ithaca, Bowdoin, Gettysburg, Clarkson, Western New England many of these teams played difficult schedules, but ultimately the losses will pile up and likely keep them out of consideration. Hope is not lost, but it would be an uphill climb.

4/11/13 Bracket:

North:

#1 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 Pool C #5 (Pool C) v. #9 Montclair St. (Skyline AQ)
v.

winner of #4 Stevens (Empire 8 AQ) v. #13 Keuka (Pool B) v. winner of #5 Middlebury (Pool C) v. #12 Castleton (NAC AQ)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

winner of #3 Tufts (NESCAC AQ) v. #14 Norwich (GNAC AQ) v. winner of #6 Endicott (CCC AQ) v. #11 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ)
v.

#2 RIT (Liberty AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #7 Cabrini* (CSAC AQ) v. #10 Keene St. (Little East AQ)

______________________________________________________________________________________________

South

#1 Dickinson (Centennial AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 Adrian (MIAA AQ) v. #9 Aurora (Midwest AQ)

v.

winner of #4 Lynchburg (Pool C) v. #13 Christopher Newport (Pool B) v. winner of #5 Salisbury (CAC AQ) v. #12 Goucher (Landmark AQ)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

winner of #3 Stevenson (MAC AQ) v. #14 Eastern (Pool B) v. winner of #6 Washington College (Pool C) v. #11 Colorado College (Pool B)

v.

winner of #2 Roanoke (ODAC AQ) v. #15 Otterbein (Pool B) v. winner of #7 W&L (Pool C) v. #10 Denison (NCAC AQ)


*You will note that Cabrini has shifted up North in this edition of the Bracketology. This was required to balance the bracket as more teams in the South Region grabbed the Pool B and Pool C bids. Cabrini was a logical choice due to their anticipated seed, and the fact that they can travel to RIT without a flight. Once again, the 29 team field has been constructed with only 1 flight involved, Colorado College to Washington College.

Any questions?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby laxlawyer on Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:45 pm

Just a few questions . . . Doesn't Colorado College still have an AQ? Doesn't Christopher Newport have too many losses to get a Pool B bid? How does a one goal, last second loss by Sewanee at Berry take them out of Pool B talk? If Sewanee/Berry/Centre run the table and win the SAA, doesn't that make them Pool B favorites with their records? Thanks for your analysis -- very thought provoking.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby Big Eyed Fish on Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:56 pm

How is Tufts unaffected by the Endicott Loss? Basically how with 3 in region losses does Tufts not get jumped by RIT's 1 in region loss?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby LovintheCAC on Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:00 pm

The bracket shows RIT #2, and Tufts #3....
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby laxguru144 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:35 pm

Excuse my ignorance, I missed a lot of the news and discussion this off season, (it took me a while just to catch up with all the rule changes!) but since when are there so many pool B teams in the tournament? Why did the NCAA decide to decrease the amount of Pool C teams and increase the amount of Pool B teams?

No offense to any of those Pool B teams, but it seems to me that all this accomplishes is weakening the tournament field. For example, Christopher Newport with 8 losses, has a very good chance to get in the tournament, while York with 10 wins, including a win over CNU earlier this year, has little chance to make it. Why aren't all the non-automatic bid spots at large?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby D-III on Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:49 pm

laxlawyer wrote:Just a few questions . . . Doesn't Colorado College still have an AQ? Doesn't Christopher Newport have too many losses to get a Pool B bid? How does a one goal, last second loss by Sewanee at Berry take them out of Pool B talk? If Sewanee/Berry/Centre run the table and win the SAA, doesn't that make them Pool B favorites with their records? Thanks for your analysis -- very thought provoking.


The Sewanee/Berry/Centre group are still very much in the mix for a bid and maybe two, need to see how the SAA tournament goes and who rises to the top. Colorado College does not have an AQ, they are a Pool B team. Another team worth noting is Whittier, they can get to .500 but that would require winning at Otterbein and against Colorado College.

Within Pool B world, CNU's SOS is high, so even with an 8-7 in-region record they would be in the mix, certainly not a lock, that depends on how the final numbers shake out.

Eastern is actually a team in trouble, their SOS under the Criteria is going to rate incredibly weak. Even if they run the table and are 15-2 they are not a lock. Same applies to King's.

Finally, Otterbein's position is tenuous as well. They must win out to even be in the mix and even that might be enough.

Pool B is an ugly, and unsettled group. Make no mistake, SOS will play a key role.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby gonelaxin on Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:29 pm

Sub Castleton in for NEC
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby D-III on Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:33 pm

gonelaxin wrote:Sub Castleton in for NEC


Good point, done.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby Power_Gull on Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:39 pm

D-III wrote:Once again, the 29 team field has been constructed with only 1 flight involved, Colorado College to Washington College.

Any questions?



Yes, I have a question :techie-studyinggray: ... Why not an even number of teams :animals-chickencatch: ?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby Power_Gull on Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:49 pm

D-III wrote:Eastern is actually a team in trouble, their SOS under the Criteria is going to rate incredibly weak. Even if they run the table and are 15-2 they are not a lock. Same applies to King's.


I have a second question :cool_pop: what is the major difference between "the Criteria" and LaxPower ... Eastern is ranked #24.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby lax2420 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:02 pm

Eastern's Strength of Schedule rank on Laxpower is #94.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby Power_Gull on Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:09 pm

lax2420 wrote:Eastern's Strength of Schedule rank on Laxpower is #94.


cool .. just noticed that. LaxPower brings what other variable into their equation .... :think:

suggested new feature for the LaxPower guruuuu's ... give us the ability to sort by any column :handgestures-thumbup: because the power gulls are #9 Qwf'ers!
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby goldenramoldie on Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:23 pm

My question is, if Eastern is a "team in trouble," who are the five pool B teams anyone feels are more deserving of an opportunity to play in the NCAA tournament?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby GullFan on Fri Apr 12, 2013 11:32 am

CNU getting in would be an absolute joke to the playoff system.
"We have a great time reminding [Ravens president] Dick Cass that even though he's a Phi Beta Kappa Princeton grad with a Yale Law degree, like the rest of us, he works for a C-student from Salisbury State," said Billick,
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby Tactful Lax on Sat Apr 13, 2013 8:11 pm

You mean like Florida Gulf Coast was a joke to make it to the Big Dance in hoops this spring? What about the year that VCU and George Mason made runs? I don't know what CNU or anyone else will do for the rest of the season, but don't bust on a school because they make it in based on the current system.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby nunya89 on Sat Apr 13, 2013 9:01 pm

^ get off the soap box.... :roll: :roll: :lol: :lol: CNU's winning % is a solid .429. Florida Gulf Coast - .703

Gullfan is right.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby Superlite II on Sat Apr 13, 2013 9:51 pm

Talent drop off in D-III is much more significant than division 1 basketball. Not a good comparison no matter what the current system is. But like any athlete, we play the game because we love it, not because we expect to win a championship every year.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby 2muchlax on Sat Apr 13, 2013 10:38 pm

you never know Gull---

look as how many close games that your team has played against unranked teams. :o
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby Tactful Lax on Sun Apr 14, 2013 10:19 am

There are dozens of D1 basketball teams that would have had a .703 winning percentage with the schedule that UFGC had. Losses against Maine, Mercer, East Tennessee State, Lipscomb (twice) and Stetson are not ordinarily part of an NCAA tournament participant's resume. They got hot at the right time and had a really fun post-season. That is what makes a tournament so fun. If you are not a fan of the system, then try to get it changed. I still stand by my original statement that you should not bust on a school for making it in, based on the current system. I feel certain that your school probably made it into the post-season in some sport where, perhaps, there were better teams that were left out.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, April 11, 2013

New postby DoubleDipSea on Sun Apr 14, 2013 1:20 pm

Can quibble a little bit with dIII's breakdown, but a pretty good starting point. IMO, even 3 of his top 4 are vulnerable with a couple of tough regular season games left. Middlebury is the exception with three relatively easy ones before the NESCAC tourney. The tier one probably lost a member yesterday with Conn College's loss to Hamilton. Bad, bad loss. FM helped themselves but can't see Centennial really getting 3 bids if Dickinson and Wash C hold serve. Up north, assuming they win what they should win and lose what they should lose, looks like it may come down to St. Lawrence or Plattsburgh. Wesleyan is toast with their loss to Middlebury. Just that embarrassing OOC schedule should disqualify them. Empire 8 guys, except for Stevens, have spent too much time beating each other up. As of today, the five C's: Middlebury, Washington College, W & L, Lynchburg and (FM, SLU or Platt).
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