D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby D-III on Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:13 pm

Here is a quick breakdown of the situations in Pool C and Pool B:

Pool C- At this point, after projecting the AQs, I have narrowed the list to 10 contenders. It has become apparent that with only 5 bids to go around, there are going to be several very unhappy teams on Selection Sunday. Frankly, none of these teams are safe. The 10 teams in consideration are:

Washington College, W&L, Middlebury, Lynchburg, Stevens, Plattsburgh, Connecticut College, York, F&M, and St. Lawrence. If you are in that group, you likely need to win out until your conference championship, or close to it. If you are not in that group, and I don’t have you winning the AQ below, it’s almost a certainty that your only avenue into the NCAA tournament is through winning a conference tournament.

Pool B- What a mess, a lot of very similar resumes, and little quality among these teams, with a whopping 5 bids to hand out. There are 7 teams in consideration; they are (in no particular order):

Otterbein, Eastern, Centre, Sewanee, Keuka, Colorado College, and Christopher Newport.***

Christopher Newport is surprisingly the easiest to hand a bid, they are 8-7 in-region, by far the worst record of the contenders, but they played the most difficult schedule and have the only win against a regional ranked opponent (Hampden-Sydney) in all of Pool B. That will pay serious dividends with the Committee.

After that, I believe the Committee will reward the more difficult schedules per the Criteria given that all the teams have high winning percentages. This has played out many times in the past, where SOS overrides a gaudy record. As such, it is actually the two teams with the best records who were eliminated from contention first, Keuka and Eastern. Their SOS's are significantly lower than the rest of the field.


4/22/13 Bracket:

North:

#1 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 Western New England (CCC AQ)
v. #9 Keene St. (Little East AQ)

v.

winner of #4 Tufts (NESCAC 8 AQ) v. #13 Norwich (Great Northeast AQ) v. winner of #5 Middlebury (Pool C) v. #12 Castleton (NAC AQ)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

winner of #3 Nazareth (E8 AQ) v. #14 Adrian** (MIAA AQ) v. winner of #6 Stevens (Pool C) v. #11 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ)

v.

#2 RIT (Liberty AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #7 Cabrini** (CSAC AQ) v. #10 Montclair St. (Skyline AQ)
______________________________________________________________________________________________

South

#1 Dickinson (Centennial AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 Denison (NCAC AQ) v. #9 Aurora (Midwest AQ)

v.

winner of #4 Washington College (Pool C) v. #13 Otterbein (Pool B) v. winner of #5 Lynchburg (Pool C) v. #12 Sewanee (Pool B)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

winner of #3 Stevenson (MAC AQ) v. #14 Colorado College (Pool B) v. winner of #6 W&L (Pool C) v. #11 Christopher Newport (Pool B)

v.

winner of #2 Roanoke (ODAC AQ) v. #15 Centre (Pool B) v. winner of #7 Salisbury (CAC AQ) v. #10 Goucher (Landmark AQ)

**Two teams, Cabrini and Adrian from the “South” region had to shift up North to balance the bracket after the South gobbled up all the Pool B bids and 3 of the Pool C bids. These two teams are the most logical to move as no flight will be required for their prospective games. The only flight in the field above is Colorado College to Stevenson.

***My original post had Berry as a Pool B contender. However, I realized that they are a provisional D3 member and tournament ineligible. Games played against them count for opponents though.

Any questions?
Last edited by D-III on Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby richard on Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:29 pm

Looks a lot like the ECAC tournaments. Lets hope that things get better than this in the upcoming years.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby muleski on Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:59 pm

D-III, if Midd wins the NESCAC tournament, and gets the AQ, how does Tufts look for a Pool C bid? Midd should host, and be very tough at home. If Bowdoin beats Tufts on Wednesday, are Tufts Pool C hopes shot? Bowdoin plays well at home, and I would not be surprised to see Williamson have one of his better games. Just a hunch.

Thanks, very much for all of your work on this. Great stuff.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby Southwillrise on Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:08 pm

1.pool B is a joke

2. I would think if Tufts doesn't win AQ, they are in serious trouble, I agree no more than 2 NESCAC teams
Midd, is in no matter what. Tufts or Conn College? Conn has head 2 head, but that was during volleyball gate.
Turns out that may really cost the Jumbos. I agree not mentioning Wes, their OOC is embarrassing.

3. I wouldn't be so quick to hand Naz an AQ. I wouldn't count out Stevens
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby laxguru144 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:45 pm

Why did the NCAA change the format from 7 pool C teams and 3 pool B teams to 5 pool C teams and 5 pool B teams?

All this seems to have accomplished was to weaken the tournament field by taking away a bunch of at large bids from good teams.....
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby Random22 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:17 pm

So all 5 pool B's would be in the south, thats a joke..we should just give them a bye in each game
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby trplax25 on Tue Apr 23, 2013 12:11 am

I suspect that Gettysburg is surprisingly still in the conversation for a Pool C bid and not out of it. Its hard to ignore a bad loss to Muhlenburg, but if you project them to win against F&M, McDaniel, and then perhaps a first round win in the conference tournament before losing to Dickinson in the final, they end up 11-6 overall, a top 3 SOS, and a 5-5 (.500) record against regionally ranked opponents. It wasn't that long ago (2011) that GB made the tournament as a Pool C with an almost identical resume (11-6 that year, lost the conference championship to Dickinson), and we know that the committee heavily rewards SOS.

Contrast that with a team like Lynchburg, who you assume wins against Shenandoah, then could lose the first round of ODAC tournament, and end up 12-5, around #20 SOS, and a sub-500 (4-5) against regionally ranked opponents, and Gettysburg's resume looks like the stronger of the two strictly by the numbers.

I'm not sure I think this is the scenario, but I don't think they're out of the running by any means at this point. Their SOS always seems to keep them viable as a Pool C team.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby FastestOn2Feet on Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:19 am

I can see the Cabrini shift to the North but Adrian's games against Stevens or Springfield are both over 600 mile trips from Michigan.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby D-III on Tue Apr 23, 2013 10:21 am

FastestOn2Feet wrote:I can see the Cabrini shift to the North but Adrian's games against Stevens or Springfield are both over 600 mile trips from Michigan.


That won't matter. Look to last year for guidance, the Committee matched Adrian-Denison in the first round with the winner traveling to Lynchburg, which was more than 500 miles from Adrian and would have required a flight if Adrian had won.

There are only so many combinations that will work once you get past the first round, especially when you are dealing with teams like Adrian, Aurora, Sewanee, etc...there are few teams they are within 500 miles of. The Committee will focus on limiting flights in the first round, and make an effort to pair teams for future rounds, but all combinations can't be covered.

Adrian can travel to Rochester without a flight hence why I pair them with Naz.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby D-III on Tue Apr 23, 2013 10:31 am

trplax25 wrote:I suspect that Gettysburg is surprisingly still in the conversation for a Pool C bid and not out of it. Its hard to ignore a bad loss to Muhlenburg, but if you project them to win against F&M, McDaniel, and then perhaps a first round win in the conference tournament before losing to Dickinson in the final, they end up 11-6 overall, a top 3 SOS, and a 5-5 (.500) record against regionally ranked opponents. It wasn't that long ago (2011) that GB made the tournament as a Pool C with an almost identical resume (11-6 that year, lost the conference championship to Dickinson), and we know that the committee heavily rewards SOS.

Contrast that with a team like Lynchburg, who you assume wins against Shenandoah, then could lose the first round of ODAC tournament, and end up 12-5, around #20 SOS, and a sub-500 (4-5) against regionally ranked opponents, and Gettysburg's resume looks like the stronger of the two strictly by the numbers.

I'm not sure I think this is the scenario, but I don't think they're out of the running by any means at this point. Their SOS always seems to keep them viable as a Pool C team.


Agree that because of SOS Gettysburg would still viable under your scenario (they win out until Centennial final), which is not what I project them to do. I also agree that Lynchburg is in a tenuous position.

That said, I did not include Gettysburg in the group of 10 Pool C contenders because too many what ifs would have to break their way for it to be realistic with 6 losses. Not only would they have to win out until the final, but other teams in contention would need to lose early in their conference tournaments, and all the favorites would need to win the AQs.

One thing you mentioned that I want to clarify, win/loss record against regionally ranked opponents is not important to the Committee. What they will measure as positives for any resume are 1) games played against regionally ranked opponents and 2) wins against regionally ranked opponents. Likewise, a team with few games played against regionally ranked opponents and/or few wins against regionally ranked opponents will suffer.

So for example, a team that is 4-5 against regionally ranked opponents will be looked at much more favorably than a team that is 2-1 against regionally ranked opponents, despite the fact that the team that is 2-1 has a better win/loss record against regionally ranked opponents.

Win/loss percentage is factored in the in-region record, not the regionally ranked opponents portion of the Criteria.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby mid20slax on Tue Apr 23, 2013 10:59 am

DIII can you please explain your pool B SOS criteria to me a little bit? I know your criteria is different than laxpower's, however Eastern's SOS (94) is rated higher than Otterbein (100), Colorado College (111), Sewanee (123), and Centre (148). Also, Eastern has played 4 teams in the Centennial Conference as opposed to teams in non-major conferences. I am also confused as Centre lost to Sewanee who lost to Greensboro (who has a losing record and is also a pool B team). If you could explain to me how a team with an OT loss to Gburg is out while these other teams are in?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby D-III on Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:19 am

mid20slax wrote:DIII can you please explain your pool B SOS criteria to me a little bit? I know your criteria is different than laxpower's, however Eastern's SOS (94) is rated higher than Otterbein (100), Colorado College (111), Sewanee (123), and Centre (148). Also, Eastern has played 4 teams in the Centennial Conference as opposed to teams in non-major conferences. I am also confused as Centre lost to Sewanee who lost to Greensboro (who has a losing record and is also a pool B team). If you could explain to me how a team with an OT loss to Gburg is out while these other teams are in?


Losing to Gettysburg in OT is unfortunately the same as losing to Gettysburg by 20 goals. It won't matter to the Committee that they lost a close game.

SOS is 2/3's opponent's winning % and 1/3 opponent's opponent's winning percentage. Eastern's SOS rates lower than those other teams. And unfortunately its only going to sink lower the next two games facing Arcadia (5-8 record) and the #4 seed in the MAC tournament. They better hope King's makes the MAC final so they face a team with a solid winning %. Meanwhile, Centre is going to see a boost in their SOS facing Berry (12-4 record) and then if they win, Sewanee (13-3 record).

Eastern is not out of it, SOS numbers will change, but it does not look good at this point. On the positive side, Eastern faced 2 regionally ranked opponents, which will be viewed favorable, they went 0-2 along with Colorado College. Christopher Newport went 1-3, Centre and Keuka each went 0-1. While Sewanee and Otterbein did not face a regionally ranked opponent, which will hurt them compared to their peers.

As I said, Pool B is a mess.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby trplax25 on Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:22 am

D-III wrote:What they will measure as positives for any resume are 1) games played against regionally ranked opponents and 2) wins against regionally ranked opponents.


Isn't this just another way of saying win percentage in a roundabout way? :confusion-shrug:

Of course, I understand the difference, even if its a very minor one, and I thank you for the clarification. I enjoy analyzing the numbers with regards to all of this, so anything that improves my model is appreciated.

I understand the way its worded prevents the hypothetical 2-1 team from appearing to have a stronger resume than the 4-5 team, but I would guess its academic. I think the 2-1 team you mentioned below is unlikely to have a strong enough SOS to be seriously considered anyway amid other Pool C contenders.

Thanks again for the work you put into this.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby GBHog on Tue Apr 23, 2013 1:15 pm

It seems to me that the desire to "grow the game" has the unintended (or maybe intended) effect of keeping competitive teams that would be at the Big Dance if there were more Pool C bids home in May and watering down the field so that the Salisburys of the world continue to feast on weaker competition and amass National Championships. God forbid that a good 14-2 team (to pick a random number) might get in over a team like the Pool B Lake Woebegone School for the Blind and stunt the growth of the game by knocking off a team with a winning "aura". :think:
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby DingDong on Tue Apr 23, 2013 1:47 pm

D-III wrote:
mid20slax wrote:DIII can you please explain your pool B SOS criteria to me a little bit? I know your criteria is different than laxpower's, however Eastern's SOS (94) is rated higher than Otterbein (100), Colorado College (111), Sewanee (123), and Centre (148). Also, Eastern has played 4 teams in the Centennial Conference as opposed to teams in non-major conferences. I am also confused as Centre lost to Sewanee who lost to Greensboro (who has a losing record and is also a pool B team). If you could explain to me how a team with an OT loss to Gburg is out while these other teams are in?


Losing to Gettysburg in OT is unfortunately the same as losing to Gettysburg by 20 goals. It won't matter to the Committee that they lost a close game.

SOS is 2/3's opponent's winning % and 1/3 opponent's opponent's winning percentage. Eastern's SOS rates lower than those other teams. And unfortunately its only going to sink lower the next two games facing Arcadia (5-8 record) and the #4 seed in the MAC tournament. They better hope King's makes the MAC final so they face a team with a solid winning %. Meanwhile, Centre is going to see a boost in their SOS facing Berry (12-4 record) and then if they win, Sewanee (13-3 record).

Eastern is not out of it, SOS numbers will change, but it does not look good at this point. On the positive side, Eastern faced 2 regionally ranked opponents, which will be viewed favorable, they went 0-2 along with Colorado College. Christopher Newport went 1-3, Centre and Keuka each went 0-1. While Sewanee and Otterbein did not face a regionally ranked opponent, which will hurt them compared to their peers.

As I said, Pool B is a mess.



If that is what the NCAA uses to determine SOS, then why do you talk up CNU's SOS? It would appear that under that criteria their SOS is worse than Colorado College's and only marginally better than Sewanee and Centre's.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby NED3Guy on Tue Apr 23, 2013 1:55 pm

DIII- This may be a simple question, but I was looking for some clarity about the rankings of AQ teams.
Does the committee use the same formula used to select pool c teams, to rank the AQ teams within the bracket? Also, are there situations where the champion of a conference gets the AQ but could still be ranked lower than a Pool C team from their league? (for instance if SLU loses to RIT this weekend, but wins the LL AQ?)
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby trplax25 on Tue Apr 23, 2013 2:36 pm

NED3Guy wrote:Also, are there situations where the champion of a conference gets the AQ but could still be ranked lower than a Pool C team from their league? (for instance if SLU loses to RIT this weekend, but wins the LL AQ?)


I believe that In 2011 Stevenson received the #1 seed in the South after losing to Salisbury in the CAC final. Similar situation to your example, that year Stevenson won the regular season match-up. This is just one example I'm familiar with, but I'm sure there are others where the team wins an AQ in an upset yet has a lesser resume than the team they defeated, even with the result of the conference final considered.

D-III would have to clarify but my assumption for the first part of your question has always been yes. I don't think I've ever run into any language outlining how teams are seeded, only how they're selected. I'm not sure how else they would do it and retain any consistency. I'm curious to see his response on this question as well.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby D-III on Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:00 pm

trplax25 wrote:
NED3Guy wrote:Also, are there situations where the champion of a conference gets the AQ but could still be ranked lower than a Pool C team from their league? (for instance if SLU loses to RIT this weekend, but wins the LL AQ?)


I believe that In 2011 Stevenson received the #1 seed in the South after losing to Salisbury in the CAC final. Similar situation to your example, that year Stevenson won the regular season match-up. This is just one example I'm familiar with, but I'm sure there are others where the team wins an AQ in an upset yet has a lesser resume than the team they defeated, even with the result of the conference final considered.

D-III would have to clarify but my assumption for the first part of your question has always been yes. I don't think I've ever run into any language outlining how teams are seeded, only how they're selected. I'm not sure how else they would do it and retain any consistency. I'm curious to see his response on this question as well.


Correct, winning a conference championship (the AQ) is treated like any other win on a team's schedule. They could certainly be seeded behind a conference mate, depending on overall resume strength.

Regarding seeding, yes it is done using the Criteria. However, an important consideration for both seeding, and selection of the Pool B and Pool C teams. The selections and seeding are not made by lining up the teams in D3 #1 through #208 and ranking them by the Criteria and then just taking the teams at the top of the list.

You start with the full field and then cuts are made, and then a fresh comparison occurs. Don't forget, analyzing some of the factors i.e. results v. common opponents, head to head etc...could occur to a group of 208 teams, or 10 teams or 2 teams.

As such the first step in selecting the field involves slowly whittling down the Pool B and Pool C field from all teams who are eligible, to smaller and smaller groups until only 5 teams remain, all the while starting over and taking a fresh look at the Criteria each time cuts are made. Then the teams are distributed to North/South, and then a fresh look occurs to seed the teams, and sub-seed them within portions of the Bracket. Of course, the 500 mile rule comes into play in that situation and overrides the Criteria, and solutions to that are a guessing game.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby D-III on Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:12 pm

DingDong wrote:If that is what the NCAA uses to determine SOS, then why do you talk up CNU's SOS? It would appear that under that criteria their SOS is worse than Colorado College's and only marginally better than Sewanee and Centre's.


I was not "talking it up" I have their SOS slightly ahead of the other Pool B teams.

Regarding Colorado College, note that their games against Babson, Wheaton, Centenary and Colorado Mesa are not part of the primary criteria.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 4/22/13

New postby youngred on Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:43 pm

What happens if WAC doesn't make the Centennial Conference tournament? Anything?
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