D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby D-III on Wed May 01, 2013 4:39 pm

Its May, Selection Sunday is only days away, the picture is becoming clearer. Here is a look at the Pool breakdowns followed by the Bracket:

Pool B- Since the last Bracketology there have been two developments of note, both OWU and Virginia-Wesleyan entered the Regional Rankings, this results in a Regionally Ranked win for Sewanee and a Regionally Ranked loss for Otterbein. Both will help their respective resumes. As you will see below, I have the same 5 Pool B teams as last week. Eastern and Keuka continue to be the last two teams out. Their SOS rate significantly behind the rest of the teams, this will offset their superior winning percentages.

Pool C- I have decided to break the entire conceivable Pool C universe into Tiers, so that everyone knows where their team stands if they do not win the AQ. I will not include much commentary, if you have a question as to why a team lands in a certain tier, feel free to ask. I am not including Cabrini in this exercise because bottom line, they are a lock to win the CSAC.

Tournament Locks- RIT, Dickinson, Cortland. These teams have all but punched their tickets to the NCAA’s, even if they lose in their conference tournaments; there is no scenario where each would not get a Pool C bid.

Tier 1- Salisbury, Roanoke, Tufts, Stevenson, Nazareth.

Tier 2- W&L, Washington College, Lynchburg, Stevens.

Tier 3- Middlebury, Denison and the Franklin & Marshall/Gettysburg Centennial Conference Semifinal Winner.

Tier 4- St. Mary’s, Franklin & Marshall/Gettysburg loser, Connecticut College (can jump a tier or two if they knock of Tufts in NESCAC semi).

Tier 5- Plattsburgh, St. Lawrence, York.

Tier 6- The Field.

5/1/13 Bracket:

North:

#1 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 Endicott (CCC AQ)
v. #9 Keene St. (Little East AQ)

v.

winner of #4 Nazareth (E8 AQ) v. #13 Adrian** (MIAA AQ) v. winner of #5 Tufts (Pool C) v. #12 Castleton (NAC AQ)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

winner of #3 Middlebury (NESCAC AQ) v. #14 Norwich (Great Northeast AQ) v. winner of #6 Stevens (Pool C) v. #11 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ)

v.

#2 RIT (Liberty AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #7 Cabrini** (CSAC AQ) v. #10 Montclair St. (Skyline AQ)
______________________________________________________________________________________________

South

#1 Dickinson (Centennial AQ) First Round Bye v. winner of #8 OWU (NCAC AQ) v. #9 Aurora (Midwest AQ)

v.

winner of #4 Washington College (Pool C) v. #13 Otterbein (Pool B) v. winner of #5 Lynchburg (Pool C) v. #12 Christopher Newport (Pool B)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

winner of #3 Stevenson (MAC AQ) v. #14 Colorado College (Pool B) v. winner of #6 W&L (Pool C) v. #11 Sewanee (Pool B)

v.

winner of #2 Roanoke (ODAC AQ) v. #15 Centre (Pool B) v. winner of #7 Salisbury (CAC AQ) v. #10 Goucher (Landmark AQ)


*Two teams, Cabrini and Adrian from the “South” region had to shift up North to balance the bracket after the South gobbled up all the Pool B bids and 3 of the Pool C bids. These two teams are the most logical to move as no flight will be required for their prospective games. The only flight in the field above is Colorado College to Stevenson.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby D-III on Wed May 01, 2013 5:48 pm

I forgot to mention I participated in Inside Lacrosse's D3 Tournament podcast. For those interested, I come in about 16 minutes into "Part 2", it might answer a few questions about the most recent Bracket and the Tiers, here is a link:

http://insidelacrosse.com/news/2013/05/ ... acketology
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby NoRightHand on Wed May 01, 2013 8:29 pm

How far does Stevens drop with their loss today and by not even making it to the E8 finals? Tier 4? 5?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby brutus of apple hill on Wed May 01, 2013 9:23 pm

Can the tournament format be changed yearly or only every other year when they change rules? The pool B participants are pathetic and I don't think it helps anything...combine Pool C and Pool B into one Pool for the next best number of teams. It will force teams to play better schedules and it will create better games. Of course all it takes is one Pool B to win and my argument is invalid. It just seems like soccer to me.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby NoRightHand on Wed May 01, 2013 9:44 pm

It's getting close to selection Sunday so it is clearly time to start hating on the pool b teams.

But....I agree the pool b selections are going to be poor at best. They should keep the aq's and just have the balance of the tournament teams made up of the next best teams. This is clearly not a new argument and the NCAA must have their reasons for the format they have now.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby Big Eyed Fish on Wed May 01, 2013 10:16 pm

Wesleyan is down to just the AQ and completely out of contention for a Pool C?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby defensewins on Wed May 01, 2013 10:42 pm

NoRightHand wrote:How far does Stevens drop with their loss today and by not even making it to the E8 finals? Tier 4? 5?


Stevens now 2-4 against regionally ranked teams. One point of comparison, thanks to Fish: Wesleyan is 2-3 against regionally ranked opponents. Everyone on this forum seems to think Wesleyan has zero chance at a Pool C bid, ergo Stevens...

Or could the experts here be wrong?

Nah.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby thatsmell on Wed May 01, 2013 10:46 pm

Dickinson beats WAC handilly.
F&M puts the dagger in G'burg.
DIckinson/F&M for the Centennial AQ.

An F&M upset would use up one of 5 Pool C's (dickinson)
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby DelawareLaxExpert on Wed May 01, 2013 11:41 pm

Does the Lynchburg - W&L loser this weekend get in regardless?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby tigerdog on Thu May 02, 2013 6:17 am

Anything could happen this weekend in the ODAC. Even Randy-Mac has a legit chance to win it all, throwing Pool C into chaos. (The top six of the ODAC can stack up against any conference's top six. There ought to be weekends reserved for conference vs. conference challenge games, like in D1 hoops.) If the W&L-Lynchburg game is one sided, and then the winner of that game loses on Sunday, there will be limited appetite to give the Saturday loser a Pool C slot, particularly if it's Coach K's Hornets being the last team in (awkward for the NCAA selection committee chair). Because of all the uncertainty, it should be easy for the coaches/teams to forget the selection intrigue, and just focus-focus-focus on winning the damn conference championship trophy. Compared to that, a Pool C bid is a consolation prize.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby mudflaps on Thu May 02, 2013 8:27 am

tigerdog wrote:Anything could happen this weekend in the ODAC. Even Randy-Mac has a legit chance to win it all, throwing Pool C into chaos. (The top six of the ODAC can stack up against any conference's top six. There ought to be weekends reserved for conference vs. conference challenge games, like in D1 hoops.) If the W&L-Lynchburg game is one sided, and then the winner of that game loses on Sunday, there will be limited appetite to give the Saturday loser a Pool C slot, particularly if it's Coach K's Hornets being the last team in (awkward for the NCAA selection committee chair). Because of all the uncertainty, it should be easy for the coaches/teams to forget the selection intrigue, and just focus-focus-focus on winning the damn conference championship trophy. Compared to that, a Pool C bid is a consolation prize.



There will always be lots of uncertainty about Pool C. However, lets be clear; Randy Mac has no chance to win the ODAC tourney or beat Roanoke on Saturday.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby DingDong on Thu May 02, 2013 11:04 am

tigerdog wrote:Anything could happen this weekend in the ODAC. Even Randy-Mac has a legit chance to win it all, throwing Pool C into chaos. (The top six of the ODAC can stack up against any conference's top six. There ought to be weekends reserved for conference vs. conference challenge games, like in D1 hoops.) If the W&L-Lynchburg game is one sided, and then the winner of that game loses on Sunday, there will be limited appetite to give the Saturday loser a Pool C slot, particularly if it's Coach K's Hornets being the last team in (awkward for the NCAA selection committee chair). Because of all the uncertainty, it should be easy for the coaches/teams to forget the selection intrigue, and just focus-focus-focus on winning the damn conference championship trophy. Compared to that, a Pool C bid is a consolation prize.



Pool C selection has absolutely nothing to do with how much a team loses or wins any game by. A win is a win and a loss is a loss, whether it be by 1 or 20.

I think there will be 3 ODAC teams in the NCAAs. What could change that is if F&M beats Dickinson... Then Dickinson would get a C bid and WAC might beat out W&L or Lynch for a C. If Cortland loses in their finals, that would throw a wrench in things as well.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby D-III on Thu May 02, 2013 11:15 am

NoRightHand wrote:How far does Stevens drop with their loss today and by not even making it to the E8 finals? Tier 4? 5?


It drops Stevens to Tier 3. I still have them as the last team in over F&M. No margin for error though if any of the "favorites" don't win their conference tournaments.

Stevens also drops from the #6 to #7 seed in my bracket. Sending Cabrini to Middlebury and Stevens to RIT if the first round went as seeded.

Ithaca moves from Tier 6 to Tier 5. They won't have enough to get a Pool C bid though. They have an excellent SOS, but would be 9-6 in-region and 2-6 against regionally ranked opponents. Stevens (and several others) would get a bid before the Bombers.

defensewins wrote:Stevens now 2-4 against regionally ranked teams. One point of comparison, thanks to Fish: Wesleyan is 2-3 against regionally ranked opponents. Everyone on this forum seems to think Wesleyan has zero chance at a Pool C bid, ergo Stevens...

Or could the experts here be wrong?

Nah.


Wrong. Stevens is 3-4 against regionally ranked opponents. Once ranked, always ranked, so the SJFC win counts. Even with a win over Middlebury and loss to Tufts/Conn College, Wesleyan's SOS would be the weakest, or second weakest above any possible Pool C team, along with Plattsburgh's SOS. If Wesleyan wants to be part of the discussion, don't play Lasell, Maritime, Eastern Ct., Gordon and Farmingdale St. as your out of conference slate. Wes hurt themselves and the other NESCAC teams as they all but eliminated themselves from the Regional Rankings this year with such a weak SOS.

DelawareLaxExpert wrote:Does the Lynchburg - W&L loser this weekend get in regardless?


No. Read the locks/tiers.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby Laxreader on Thu May 02, 2013 11:19 am

Best I can tell, after the centennial semis, F&M and WAC both have 4 wins against regionally ranked teams (and each has 4 losses against same). Given F&M beat WAC head to head if it came down to WAC v F&M for last C bid, wouldn't it go to F&M or is that too logical for committee process?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby D-III on Thu May 02, 2013 11:44 am

Laxreader wrote:Best I can tell, after the centennial semis, F&M and WAC both have 4 wins against regionally ranked teams (and each has 4 losses against same). Given F&M beat WAC head to head if it came down to WAC v F&M for last C bid, wouldn't it go to F&M or is that too logical for committee process?


WAC is 5-4 against regionally ranked opponents (including wins over highly ranked Salisbury and W&L). F&M would be 4-5 against regionally ranked opponents (best win against WAC).

WAC has a slightly better SOS.

WAC has the better winning %.

WAC has the slightly better resume against common opponents. F&M beat Gettysburg, but lost to Haverford and W&L, for a 1-2 record. WAC beat Haverford and W&L but lost to Gettysburg, for a 2-1 record. Other than that they both lost to and beat the same teams.

F&M holds the head to head.

In other words, WAC has the edge in 4 of 5 of the primary criteria. I believe that would override head to head if it came down to these two teams.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby laxwatcher6 on Thu May 02, 2013 1:32 pm

D-III,

I understand that the committee is fairly well bound by the criteria when it comes to awarding at-large bids ... but how much flexibility do they have when it comes to seeding? You still have WAC as a four seed ... given their most recent regional ranking (sixth - prior to yesterday's loss) and the fact that their four losses were simply not competitive, I struggle with the idea that the committee would reward them with two potential home games. I would think them more likely to be matched up with Stevenson or Roanoke (assuming Roanoke wins the ODAC) in round two than hosting Lynchburg ...
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby D-III on Thu May 02, 2013 2:38 pm

laxwatcher6 wrote:D-III,

I understand that the committee is fairly well bound by the criteria when it comes to awarding at-large bids ... but how much flexibility do they have when it comes to seeding? You still have WAC as a four seed ... given their most recent regional ranking (sixth - prior to yesterday's loss) and the fact that their four losses were simply not competitive, I struggle with the idea that the committee would reward them with two potential home games. I would think them more likely to be matched up with Stevenson or Roanoke (assuming Roanoke wins the ODAC) in round two than hosting Lynchburg ...


By flexibility, if you mean analyzing scores, it won't happen. Teams are evaluated on a Win/Loss basis only. Scores are not a factor. Period.

The WAC, Lynchburg, W&L, Salisbury group is tight, they have similar resumes. I won't have it fleshed out until Sunday when the SOS numbers are settled. Salisbury might end up being the highest seed of the four as right now they have the best winning %, SOS and most regionally ranked wins.

That said, Salisbury has lost to Lynchburg, W&L and WAC, so its tough to default to them at the top of that group. W&L has also lost to both Lynchburg and WAC. And right now WAC's resume is superior to Lynchburg's, though its close. That is how I broke it down, more or less.
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby Dragon80 on Thu May 02, 2013 2:52 pm

SOS and winning percentage may be the big determinants of where teams get seeded, but lets not forget that the committee can put a team anywhere they want when it comes down to money. If they could make Salisbury the number 1 seed down South because it would result in more tickets sold, it wouldn't surprise me in the least. Just saying ...
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby mudflaps on Thu May 02, 2013 3:00 pm

Dragon80 wrote:SOS and winning percentage may be the big determinants of where teams get seeded, but lets not forget that the committee can put a team anywhere they want when it comes down to money. If they could make Salisbury the number 1 seed down South because it would result in more tickets sold, it wouldn't surprise me in the least. Just saying ...


Post of the year. What does NCAA do with all the money it makes on DIII lacrosse ticket sales?
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Re: D3 Bracketology, 5/1/13

New postby youngred on Thu May 02, 2013 3:00 pm

D-III -

Is Haverford out of it? I'm pretty sure there has to be at least one Quaker school in the field...
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