Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

For discussions of high school varsity boys' lacrosse

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Laxgramps on Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:40 am

Cam Badour did a PG year at IMG and ended up at Duke. School wanted him to do a PG year. Lax is getting to be much like NCAA hockey. No one but guys like Jack Eichel go to college out of HS. Almost all D1 hockey players play a year or two of Junior hockey in USHL or NAHL. Colleges prefer their freshmen to be 20 rather than 18. They prefer them to have lived away from their parents a year or two to become more acclimated to what college will be like. They prefer their freshmen to be one or two years older, bigger and stronger. This is why hockey programs like Union, Yale, Quinnipiac, Michigan Tech, etc... can compete with schools like BC, ND and the like. The average age of the Union team that won the NCAA title a few years ago was 24. Many lax programs are seeing what that extra year after HS can do for an incoming freshman. Doing a PG year the kid takes college level classes, works out and focuses on getting ready for college AND Lax. Just look at some of the LI youth teams...Team 91 2021 is almost totally made up of reclasses. You will see more and more of it so long as the colleges want it and promote it.
Laxgramps
 
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed May 17, 2017 4:23 pm

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby BigRedOne on Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:51 am

twoin wrote:Not familiar with how his recruiting went down, but Jack Henry Vara from Medfield (MA) seemed set to go to Holy Cross through his senior year, then prepped at Choate and ended up at Princeton.


The poach is the preferred way to get late bloomers if you can corral them by Fall of Senior year of HS or they go PG. my fav is the Cuse red shirt where kids pay 4.5 years of tuition for the chance to see the field but many don’t.
.
Agree on different polls for different school types. Public/private/prep.
.
FWIW- Duke had a 21 yo soph on their 2nd midfield.
BigRedOne
 
Posts: 672
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 10:11 am

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Matnum PI on Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:27 am

Ward Melville moved up (but not past Brunswick), Darien dropped (moving Culver and Salisbury up), Delbarton moved up to tie Chaminade (and Darien), and Victor dropped out of the Top 18.

TODAY: Saturday, 06.09.18 Games
Victor lost to Garden City
Ward-Melville beat West Genesee
Darien lost to Ridgefield
Delbarton beat Summit

Points (N) = Team Points are normalized to 14 games so each team has same number of games.

Image
Caddy Day
Caddies Welcome 1-1:15
User avatar
Matnum PI
 
Posts: 4260
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 7:30 pm
Location: Baltimore, Maryland

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby random observer on Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:45 pm

Darien's loss bumps them back into the 5-10 range and clears things up a little at the top. IMO there are three teams with a legitimate claim for the #1 ranking: Ward Melville, Delbarton, and Brunswick. Three teams from hotbed areas who won (or split) their league/title, and had only one slip-up along the way. How you choose between the three is entirely based on the criteria.

If you were to go by eye test and who was playing the best lacrosse at the end of the season, I think it would be WM. They looked a lot like that #1 2013 team during the state playoffs. Brunswick looked like one of the best teams I had ever seen earlier in the season, but their offense lost some steam later in the year, especially once their dominant FOGO got hurt. Delbarton was pretty steady throughout, although not quite as dominant at their best IMO as either of the other two. I'd go WM by this metric.

I prefer to only use the eye test as a last resort, however, in the event that the resumes are too even to separate:

Losses: Each had one loss by a close margin (8-6 to Chatham for Delbarton, 7-6 to HHHE for WM, and 13-10 to Salisbury for Wick). Delbarton's was the worst IMO, as Chatham was a solid squad but certainly not close to cracking any national rankings. Ward Melville's was better, as HHHE is on the periphery of the top 25.. Brunswick's happened late in the season, by a greater margin, and they didn't get to avenge it like WM and Delbarton did, but it's the best loss IMO because Salisbury is a legit top 10 team.

Top 25 wins: Delbarton has 3 (10-7 vs. Chaminade, 13-10 vs. St. A's, and 10-9 vs. MP), Wick has 2 (14-8 vs. Hill and 10-3 vs. Deerfield), and WM has 2 (11-7 vs. Chaminade and 8-5 vs. Massapequa). Wick and Delbarton have a slight edge over WM here. Delbarton has the most wins, and Wick's were the most dominant.

Near top 25 wins (teams that were really good, but are probably on the outside looking in at the top 25): Delbarton has 6 (2 each vs Summit, Seton Hall Prep, and Mountain Lakes), Wick has 3 (Landon, Taft, NC), and WM has 3 (HHHE, Smithtown West, West Genesee). Delbarton has the edge in this department, although once again, Wick as well as WM were more dominant in most of their wins.

Solids wins (teams that are solid but not near on the periphery of the top 25): Delbarton had 4 (Watchung Hills, Chatham, St. Augustine, Westfield), Wick had 5 (AOF, Choate, Lawrenceville, Berkshire, Westminter), WM had 6 (Connetquot x2, WI, Commack, L-S, Niskayuna). This category isn't all that significant, and none of the teams has enough of an edge for it to really matter, but WM and Wick edge Delbarton here.

TLDR so that's a whole lot of text without a clear winner. WM probably looks the best right now. Delbarton has the most quality wins (but also the worst loss). Brunswick is sort of caught in between, having a mix of WM's dominant look (but not towards the end of the season like WM), and Delbarton's superior wins. Can we have a 3-way tie?
random observer
 
Posts: 1011
Joined: Thu Mar 31, 2011 9:17 pm

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby kayak on Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:05 pm

Fun analysis. Thanks for breaking it down so well. and, I agree.

My choice;
1. Ward Melville - dominant down the stretch, rout in ship.
2. Brunswick - dominant early, pretty solid throughout in a very tough, competitive league.
3. Delbarton - solid throughout, nothing flashy, but very good.
User avatar
kayak
 
Posts: 289
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:54 am

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby NJlaxguy on Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:20 am

Nice analysis although one added point would be Delbarton beat everyone in the state since in NJ they play it down to last team standing in the Tournament of Champions. And they have done it three years in a row. Losing just 4x in the last 3 years, playing some of the best programs in NJ, NY, and PA. Ward Melville had a great year but I bet Delbarton, playing a harder schedule, is slightly better.
NJlaxguy
 
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:07 pm

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Matnum PI on Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:00 am

You're only as good as the teams you beat. Conversely, you're only as bad as the teams you lose to. So if you beat #4 and #5 and you lose to #1, by definition, you should be #2 or #3. With this logic in mind, I made a list of the top teams and plugged in their top wins and bottom losses, linked the Ws and Ls to the rank of the teams they beat and lost to, and let the spreadsheet do the rest. So, based solely on quality wins (as dictated by the ranking of the teams beaten) and lack-of-quality losses (as dictated by the ranking of the teams lost to), this is how it came out:

1 Chaminade (NY)
2 Ward Melville (NY)
3 Culver (IN)
4 Brunswick (CT)
5 Salisbury School (CT) *
6 St. Anthonys (NY)
7 Delbarton (NJ)
8 Hill Academy (CAN) *
9 Darien (CT)
10 McDonogh (MD)
11 Half Hollow Hills E (NY)
12 Smithtown West (NY)
13 Boys Latin (MD)
14 Calvert Hall (MD)
15 Deerfield (MA) *
16 IMG (FL)
17 Haverford (PA)
18 Yorktown (NY)
19 Gonzaga (DC)

By the numbers, why not WM, Delbarton, or Brunswick? WM's wins are very similar to Chaminade's but WM's loss, though they only have one, is worse. Delbarton's loss to Chatham hurts them a lot. Though Brunswick's loss is better than Chaminade's, Brunswick's wins aren't as good.
Caddy Day
Caddies Welcome 1-1:15
User avatar
Matnum PI
 
Posts: 4260
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 7:30 pm
Location: Baltimore, Maryland

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Laxgramps on Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:24 am

Chaminade lost to WM. Sorry. Head to head has to be the tiebreaker between 1 and 2.
Laxgramps
 
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed May 17, 2017 4:23 pm

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby BeaverCreek on Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:58 am

Here is the final US Lax Mag poll. Very different than the others. Culver at #1. Not sure I agree at all with most of this (seems a bit too MIAA favoritism), but it's worth a debate.

I think Garden City's rise at the end kept elevating Calvert Hall here.


https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/high-scho ... nal-top-25


(incidentally, what are all the Garden City kids drinking - and promoting! - in that photo? Anyone?)
BeaverCreek
 
Posts: 4371
Joined: Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:20 pm
Location: On the mountain or on the field, never in an office

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Baldo on Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:04 am

Chocolate milk - American Dairy Association - North East NYSPHSAA sponsor
"If you come to a fork in the road, take it"
- Yogi Berra
User avatar
Baldo
Site Admin
 
Posts: 20323
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:18 am
Location: The Bat Cave

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby pcowlax on Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:46 am

Laxgramps wrote:Chaminade lost to WM. Sorry. Head to head has to be the tiebreaker between 1 and 2.


Yeah, this is really a no-brainer. WM with only 1 loss, crushed A final, beat Chaminade, no way they can be behind them. I personally think HHHE is overrated but that is obviously not a bad loss at all, can’t have a 1 loss team from Section 11 A below a 3 loss team that they beat, iregardless of anything to do with the 3 loss teams schedule.
pcowlax
 
Posts: 1782
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 4:52 pm
Location: CT

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby BeaverCreek on Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:04 am

Baldo wrote:Chocolate milk - American Dairy Association - North East NYSPHSAA sponsor



Thanks. I think that'd be the last thing I'd drink after a game, but to each his own!
BeaverCreek
 
Posts: 4371
Joined: Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:20 pm
Location: On the mountain or on the field, never in an office

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Matnum PI on Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:08 pm

pcowlax wrote:can’t have a 1 loss team from Section 11 A below a 3 loss team that they beat, iregardless of anything to do with the 3 loss teams schedule.


if a team loses to the #1, #2, #3, and #4 teams in the nation and beats #6, #7, etc., regardless of their 4 losses, they're the #5 team in the nation. while a different team only loses one game but it's to the #18 or whatever team in the country, that team's one loss will put the relevant team in a pretty good hole. who you lose to is more important than how many you lose.
Caddy Day
Caddies Welcome 1-1:15
User avatar
Matnum PI
 
Posts: 4260
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 7:30 pm
Location: Baltimore, Maryland

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Laxgramps on Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:38 pm

Exactly my point. Chaminade LOST to WM. WM lost one game all year. They are clearly #1.
Laxgramps
 
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed May 17, 2017 4:23 pm

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby laxguywm on Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:33 pm

......and Ward Melville subsequently beat the team theyhad lost to (by only one goal) six weeks later in the playoffs by a score of 14 to 5 !!!!
laxguywm
 
Posts: 510
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:20 am

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby pcowlax on Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:42 pm

Matnum PI wrote:
pcowlax wrote:can’t have a 1 loss team from Section 11 A below a 3 loss team that they beat, iregardless of anything to do with the 3 loss teams schedule.


if a team loses to the #1, #2, #3, and #4 teams in the nation and beats #6, #7, etc., regardless of their 4 losses, they're the #5 team in the nation. while a different team only loses one game but it's to the #18 or whatever team in the country, that team's one loss will put the relevant team in a pretty good hole. who you lose to is more important than how many you lose.


This makes no sense Matnum. WM lost fewer, had a reasonably comparable number of big wins (I'll give Chaminade a slight edge there) lost to a very good team who they them thumped, and beat Chaminade head to head. There is no conceivable metric or ranking system that could justify Chaminade over WM.
Last edited by pcowlax on Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
pcowlax
 
Posts: 1782
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 4:52 pm
Location: CT

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby twoin on Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:48 pm

Matnum, I get that the methodology of your poll was a work in progress all season, but it seems like the biggest moving of the goal posts yet to get Chaminade to #1 overall.
twoin
 
Posts: 414
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 11:25 am

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Doid23 on Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:31 am

BeaverCreek wrote:Here is the final US Lax Mag poll. Very different than the others. Culver at #1. Not sure I agree at all with most of this (seems a bit too MIAA favoritism), but it's worth a debate.

I think Garden City's rise at the end kept elevating Calvert Hall here.


https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/high-scho ... nal-top-25


(incidentally, what are all the Garden City kids drinking - and promoting! - in that photo? Anyone?)

Ridgefield at #13? Really? Great upset win over Darien, great state championship, but they are in no way, shape or form the #13 team in the country. What are their other big wins? Lost to every other quality team they played (Yorktown, John Jay, NC, Darien, Staples ). Don’t see it.
Surprisingly, chocolate milk is a great recovery drink after intense exercise. Who knew?
Doid23
 
Posts: 941
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2005 5:01 pm
Location: Far from home

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Matnum PI on Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:19 am

I also don't think Chaminade is #1. I did the 10% Ante idea this season. Recently I was playing around with a new idea with the World Cup and I was curious what the rankings would be with the HS teams with this same system. And... That's how it came out. Again, i also don't love this ranking but... there is a rhyme and reason. Its just that the rhyme and reason, for whatever reason, doesnt work with Boys HS Lacrosse. For what it's worth, with World Cup soccer, it's also imperfect. The nature of art and science. Science is always correct but it's not always right.
Caddy Day
Caddies Welcome 1-1:15
User avatar
Matnum PI
 
Posts: 4260
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 7:30 pm
Location: Baltimore, Maryland

Re: Under Armour/IL Top 25 High School Power Rankings

New postby Matnum PI on Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:26 am

US Lax is all art and no science. Part of the art is, The champ of traditionally strong conferences get an automatic ranking. Thus Ridgefield. They're like a painter who looks at a canvas and says, We need a west coast team and... More Baltimore. Always more Baltimore.
Caddy Day
Caddies Welcome 1-1:15
User avatar
Matnum PI
 
Posts: 4260
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 7:30 pm
Location: Baltimore, Maryland

Sponsor
 

PreviousNext

Return to Boys' High School Lacrosse

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 23 guests