QUARTERFINALS: Duke 14, Johns Hopkins 9 (Final)

For those wishing to conduct game-specific discussions

Who wins?

Poll ended at Sun May 20, 2018 12:12 pm

Duke
23
48%
Hopkins
24
51%
 
Total votes : 47

QUARTERFINALS: Duke 14, Johns Hopkins 9 (Final)

New postby Lax Fidelis on Mon May 14, 2018 2:42 am

Blue Jays need a vastly improved performance to knock off their recent nemesis from Durham.
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Re: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby vipersback on Mon May 14, 2018 8:24 am

I think much of what we say against Georgetown was related to Georgetown's style of play and awesome goal-keeping. Hopkins offense grew frustrated and started pressing. Ironically, while Duke IMHO is a tougher match-up, their style of play is more inline with Hopkins experience over the season. They really haven't seen much of the slow-down slam the door on the goal until yesterday and it was noticeable.

Hopkins will need to rectify the faceoff woes - which might require them to go to Prouty sooner rather than later. On the defense, Turnbaugh needs to have more than 4 saves since he will likely be facing twice the number of shots he saw yesterday.

As a Jays fan, recent history (the last few years) has me feeling uneasy, but this season's play does provide some confidence that they can run with the Devils. No too mention the fact that Duke has been beatable this year.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby DMS87 on Mon May 14, 2018 12:31 pm

I got my ticket, can't wait until Sunday. I love this venue. A way early weather look says 83, humid and chance of showers. Duke averages just under 14 goals a game, shoots 38% and is around 55% on man up, a very tough challenge for Hop D. Duke faces off at 50% and have had some turnovers in their clear game so Hop has to capitalize in those areas.

Many keys to winning for Hop but man up has to be 50%, they have struggled recently and tried both Forry and Fox inside yesterday, both got shots but could not convert. I also think the 2nd tier mids, Concannon, Fraser, DeSimone and Valis have to find a way to more evenly distribute 6v6 scoring. There should be transition opportunities for both sides.

Quint, who always says alot, stated the obvious but its telling in that Marr scores as a product of great ball movement. He gets over 2 goals, Hop wins. For that to occur they need the ball and people moving. Very stagnant at times yesterday.

Prouty is 34% on the season, Moreland has to do better and be the guy. I thought he was unlucky on a few gbs early yesterday and it spiraled. I saw them double pole the wings yesterday, this should be the default. Smyth, the Duke FOGO, doesn't win many to himself, averages less than 4 gbs a game, therefore the shortie replacing the D on the wing will likely not be forced into defending to many fast breaks. Foley, with his wheels, needs to be on the wing every face off.

No secret here but Cole and Brock have to be way better. Cole seems to need just one to fall and then they come in bunches. He had the shots yesterday, they were just missed.

I think this is a 14-13 game, either way.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby 44WeWantMore on Mon May 14, 2018 2:46 pm

Massey expects that the Massey-rated #2 Jays will lose to the #7 rated Devils 12-11.
https://www.masseyratings.com/clax/1159 ... t=20180520
Not that I disagree so much with the prediction (but no way am I filling my bracket that way), but can somebody explain the contradiction based on a neutral field?
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby JHU87 on Mon May 14, 2018 10:35 pm

44WeWantMore wrote:Massey expects that the Massey-rated #2 Jays will lose to the #7 rated Devils 12-11.
https://www.masseyratings.com/clax/1159 ... t=20180520
Not that I disagree so much with the prediction (but no way am I filling my bracket that way), but can somebody explain the contradiction based on a neutral field?

Mark Twain’s answer.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby Drcthru on Tue May 15, 2018 12:55 pm

44WeWantMore wrote:Massey expects that the Massey-rated #2 Jays will lose to the #7 rated Devils 12-11.
https://www.masseyratings.com/clax/1159 ... t=20180520
Not that I disagree so much with the prediction (but no way am I filling my bracket that way), but can somebody explain the contradiction based on a neutral field?

Is Annapolis a neutral field for the Jays?
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby 44WeWantMore on Tue May 15, 2018 2:06 pm

My point was that Massey seems to slant close games towards the home team, so maybe for some reason they think NMCS favors Duke (is Duke technically the home team? Do they they think NMCS still has that beautiful grass, which looked far better than Duke's field in the opening round?).

Otherwise I cannot figure out how they give Duke the edge without resorting to something subjective, like the opening round eye test, history, or some other subjective criterion I cannot find.

P.S. I am well aware of how Homewood Field looked by May.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby MM11 on Tue May 15, 2018 9:36 pm

Drcthru wrote:
44WeWantMore wrote:Massey expects that the Massey-rated #2 Jays will lose to the #7 rated Devils 12-11.
https://www.masseyratings.com/clax/1159 ... t=20180520
Not that I disagree so much with the prediction (but no way am I filling my bracket that way), but can somebody explain the contradiction based on a neutral field?

Is Annapolis a neutral field for the Jays?


Oh yeah it is....its 54 miles away. :oops:
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby Lax Fidelis on Wed May 16, 2018 5:31 am

Drcthru wrote:
44WeWantMore wrote:Massey expects that the Massey-rated #2 Jays will lose to the #7 rated Devils 12-11.
https://www.masseyratings.com/clax/1159 ... t=20180520
Not that I disagree so much with the prediction (but no way am I filling my bracket that way), but can somebody explain the contradiction based on a neutral field?

Is Annapolis a neutral field for the Jays?

More neutral than it is for Maryland.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby Homer on Wed May 16, 2018 8:07 am

44WeWantMore wrote:My point was that Massey seems to slant close games towards the home team, so maybe for some reason they think NMCS favors Duke (is Duke technically the home team? Do they they think NMCS still has that beautiful grass, which looked far better than Duke's field in the opening round?).

Otherwise I cannot figure out how they give Duke the edge without resorting to something subjective, like the opening round eye test, history, or some other subjective criterion I cannot find.

P.S. I am well aware of how Homewood Field looked by May.


I don't know much about Massey specifically. But in making predictions it's not uncommon to use a combination of current ratings and preseason projections, with the former getting more weight as the season goes on but never 100%. It sounds paradoxical but if you get the ratio right you will actually make better predictions that way. The idea being that if there's mean-reversion from the season results to date, it's more likely than not to be in the direction of where you anticipated the teams would be from the beginning.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby BlueJaySince1947 on Wed May 16, 2018 2:55 pm

Who cares...!!! I :sleeping-sleeping:
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby Homer on Wed May 16, 2018 4:32 pm

Sorry, fella, it's Wednesday. With no play-in game this week it's a little harder for us to stick to your preferred topics like taunting Robert Morris fans about how terrible their team is. Seemed like you were pretty interested in the whole prediction business back then.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby get it to x on Wed May 16, 2018 4:52 pm

I would like to see them shut off Guterding with a shorty, perhaps rotating shorties to keep them fresh. By shutting off you will eliminate the tendency to ball watch when Guterding has the ball. It also allows you to double pole the middies, which should affect Duke's initiating from the top. You then only leave one SSDM for Duke to try and get "Big/Little" switches against.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby slipknot on Thu May 17, 2018 7:05 pm

On paper, this game should be close. But... I am looking for another game of sheer Duke domination!

Duke 16 - Hopkins 9

GO DUKE! :character-afro:
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby DocBarrister on Fri May 18, 2018 11:25 pm

It’s going to be hot and humid. Depth and possession time are probably going to play a role in the outcome.

I’m calling it 13-12, Johns Hopkins.

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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby BlueJaySince1947 on Sat May 19, 2018 11:26 am

Typical hot stinkin' Maryland weather tomorrow...!
Thank the Lord for the Carnot cycle.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby Laxalife4 on Sun May 20, 2018 8:21 am

I assume the field is going to be a muddy mess. For any FOGO experts out there, any idea what is likely to be the impact of that on Moreland? Suspect the Jays will have trouble if he's not doing well. Thoughts?
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby 44WeWantMore on Sun May 20, 2018 9:03 am

Back in the day, I thought they had great grass, but NMCS is now field turf
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby molo on Sun May 20, 2018 9:06 am

For me, it's hard to forget the image of the second half of the Duke game at Loyola. That does not bode well for Hopkins.
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Re: QUARTERFINALS: Johns Hopkins v. Duke Sunday, 5/20, 2:30 PM

New postby DocBarrister on Sun May 20, 2018 3:30 pm

Slow passive defense, losing every 50-50 gb. Turnbaugh is keeping this game from getting completely out of hand. Failed clear on a simple exchange pass.

Why is it the defense never shows up until later in the game?

Blue Jays can definitely win this, but they need to ramp up the energy on D.

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